Kris Osborn - Warrior Maven
(Washington, D.C.) The increasing global reach of Chinese nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines, armed with JL-2 weapons reportedly able to hit parts of the US, continues to inspire an ongoing Navy effort to accelerate production of attack submarines, prepare long-dwell drones for deployment to the Pacific and continue acquisition of torpedo-armed sub-hunting planes such as the P-8/A Poseidon.
The Navy has been moving quickly to increase its fleet of Poseidon’s on an accelerated timetable; in the Navy’s 2020 budget, the service was authorized for a near term increase in Poseidon production by three, moving funding for the year up for nine Poseidons, U.S. Navy officials tell Warrior. Last year, the Navy awarded Boeing a $2.4 billion deal to produce 19 more P-8A Poseidon surveillance and attack planes. The Poseidon increase appears to align with the service’s overall Pacific theater strategy, which makes a point to sustain peaceful, yet vital surveillance and Freedom of Navigation missions in the region.
Navy officials tell Warrior the Poseidon program is at full production, now delivering 1.5 jets per month to U.S. and foreign customers.
"The P-8A Poseidon program has delivered 91 jets to the US Navy, 12 to the Royal Australian Air Force, and one to the UK Royal Air Force, all on or ahead of schedule. The approved US fiscal year 2020 budget funded nine P-8As which will be procured in the eleventh production lot of US Navy P-8A aircraft, manufactured by The Boeing Company. This will bring the number of jets procured for the US Navy to 120 of the US Navy’s inventory objective of 138 aircraft," Megan Wasel, spokewsoman for the Navy's Air Assault and Special Mission programs.
Seeking to overcome the Pacific’s “tyranny of distance” dispersed geography, and track China’s expanding fleet of submarines, the Navy is working with Congress to accelerate and delivery more Virginia-class submarines per year, moving beyond previous plans. The Navy has also been moving to place its new Triton sea drones in Guam.
Interestingly, a Dec. 6 report in the Asia Times cites Pacific Air Forces commander Gen. Charles Brown stating that air patrols “in and around the South China Sea continue.
“We’ve been flying in and around the South China Sea for really about the past 15 years, and I would probably tell you we’ve done some as recently as this week,” Brown told reporters on Dec. 6, according to the Asia Times article.
As part of these missions, Brown specifically cited Poseidon aircraft as well as PQ-4 Global Hawks and U-2 Dragon Lady reconnaissance planes.
Given the Poseidon’s role as a high-tech surveillance aircraft, known for capturing video of Chinese phony island building in the South China Sea (land reclamation) several years ago, it takes little imagination to envision ways its advanced sensors, sonobuoys and weapons could function as part of a containment strategy against Chinese expansion - - and even operate as a deterrent against China’s growing fleet of nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines (SSBN).
The PLA Navy has, in recent years, been expanding its reach beyond the Pacific as part of a visible effort to become a major-power international force. Chinese SSBNs have been sighted at great distances from Western Pacific shores, according to numerous news reports - - and the existence of both JL-2s and emerging JL-3s have increased pressure on the US. According to the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, the Chinese had deployed up to 48 JL-2 launchers on submarines as of 2017. With ranges greater than 4,500 miles, JL-2s travelling well beyond China’s immediate vicinity can hold US areas at risk.
In 2018, Captain James Fanell, a former director of intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, warned Congress about the need to track and deter Chinese nuclear-armed submarines.
“Every time a [PLA Navy] SSBN departs on a strategic nuclear patrol, the [U.S. Navy] must follow closely enough to be ready to sink them if they ever attempt to launch a nuclear tipped ICBM towards our shores,” he told Congress, according to an essay called “China’s new undersea nuclear deterrent strategy doctrine and capabilities” from the National Defense University. (Dr. Toshi Yoshirara & Dr. James Holmes)
The essay goes on to make the case that, given the difficulties associated with intercepting possible Chinese SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles) , an intelligent way to address the threat might be to “hold Chinese SSBNs at risk so they can be destroyed preemptively before their SLBMs can be launched.”
The Poseidon, alongside ISR-enabled SSN attack submarines, seems well positioned to help perform this SSBN sub-hunting mission for a number of reasons. Not only is the P-8’s 564 mph speed considerably faster than the P-3 Orion it is replacing, but its six additional fuel tanks enable it to search wider swaths of ocean and spend more dwell-time patrolling high-threat areas. Navy developers explain the Poseidon can operate on 10-hour missions at ranges out to 1,200 nautical miles. More dwell time capacity, fortified by high-speeds, seems to position the Poseidon well for covering wide areas in search of “hidden” Chinese SSBNs.
The P-8A, a militarized variant of Boeing’s 737-800, includes torpedo and Harpoon weapons stations, 129 sonobuoys and an in-flight refueling station, providing longer ranges, sub-hunting depth penetration and various attack options. Given that a P-8 can conduct sonobuoy sub-hunting missions from higher altitudes than surface ships, helicopters or other lower-flying aircraft, it can operate with decreased risk from enemy surface fire and swarming small boat attacks. Unlike many drones and other ISR assets, a Poseidon can not only find and track enemy submarines, but attack and destroy them as well.
Alongside its AN/APY-10 surveillance radar and MX-series electro-optical/infrared cameras optimized to scan the ocean surface, the Poseidon’s air-parachuted sonobuoys can find submarines at various depths beneath the surface. The surveillance aircraft can operate as a “node” within a broader sub-hunting network consisting of surface ships, unmanned surface vessels, aerial drone-mounted maritime sensors and submarines. As part of its contribution to interconnected sub-hunting missions, the Poseidon can draw upon an Active Electronically Scanned Array, Synthetic Aperture Radar and Ground Moving Target Indicator.
By lowering hydrophones and a magnetic compass to a pre-determined depth, connected by cable to a floating surface radio transmitter, Poseidon sonobuoys can convert acoustic energy from the water into a radio signal sent to aircraft computer processors, according to a June 2018 issue of “Physics World.”
Also, Poseidon-dispatched sonobuoys can contribute to the often discussed “US Navy Fish Hook Undersea Defense Line,” a seamless network of hydrophones, sensors and strategically positioned assets stretching from coastal areas off of Northern China down near the Philippines all the way to Indonesia, according to an essay from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called “China’s Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability.”
An improved aerial sub-hunting presence offered by the Poseidon, it seems, could help reinforce this “Undersea Defense Line” effort to prevent Chinese SSBNs from leaving the region undetected.
Interestingly, Poseidons might offer a significant nuance to the Pentagon’s well-cultivated nuclear deterrence posture, by introducing a technically advanced method of finding and destroying enemy SSBNs from the air. It aligns with the current “offensive power can be the best defense” approach central to the Pentagon’s nuclear-triad strategic deterrence strategy. Holding Chinese SSBNs at risk, could at very least help further deter China from contemplating some kind of sub-launched nuclear strike. The Poseidon could almost function as a kind of connective tissue between the undersea and air portions of the nuclear triad. The current air leg of the triad, consisting of platforms such as the B-2 and B-52 bombers, is not able to track or destroy submarines. A Poseidon could further fortify the air leg of the triad while also providing crucial intelligence to surface ships and US undersea assets seeking to track Chinese SSBNs.
Currently in service with UK, Norwegian, Indian and Australian militaries, among others, the Poseidon is increasingly in demand in the international market.
Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army - Acquisition, Logistics& Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
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