By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Taiwan’s National Ministry of Defense says a Chinese rocket passed “directly” over Taiwan in outer space, a provocative and potentially concerning development suggesting the PRC may be assessing and demonstrating methods of attacking Taiwan.
At very least, the People’s Liberation Army move appears to be an effort to “intimidate” Taiwan and demonstrate its growing ability to attack the island in a number of ways.
A statement from the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense, cited in Taiwan’s Central News Agency, states that the “rocket passed over southwestern Taiwan in outer space,” and that Taiwanese “intelligence systems had been closely tracking the launch.” This was the first of several PLA fired rockets which passed “directly” over Taiwan. (Interestingly, Taiwan’s CNA goes back nearly 100 years to 1924. The news service moved to Taipei in 1949 following the Chinese Civil War and greater establishment of Taiwan)
The CNA essay said the PLA rocket was identified as a Long March -2D carrier rocket, and the paper referenced a Chinese newspaper stating that the rocket was part of a “remote sensing” satellite into space. However, CNA also quoted experts explaining that Chinese Yaogan satellites are government-operated sensing technologies often used for military use.
In one respect, the launch could simply be part of the PRC’s routine posturing, training and demonstrations of its ability to attack and annex Taiwan, yet the rocket launch could also indicate more ominous intentions. For instance, most wargamers and observers believe any Chinese attack is likely to begin with a salvo of rockets and ballistic missiles targeting Taiwan’s defenses, forces and command and control. Such a prospect is also recognized by the Pentagon’s annual China reports which for several years have expressed growing concern about China’s fast-expanding rocket and missile arsenal.
Yet another potentially concerning possibility is that the PRC wants Taiwan to get used to rocket passage above its airspace to prepare for an eventual surprise attack. When it comes to any kind of missile attack, the most critical factor impacting success is a question of timing. How quickly can an attack be seen by defenses, drones, radar and satellites? Can ground defenders receive sufficient warning of a possible attack fast enough to fire an interceptor, jam its guidance systems or launch a countermeasure of some kind? Should Taiwanese ground sensors and satellites become used to “frequent” Chinese rocket passages across its airspace, it could misinterpret a possible surprise attack as a routine demonstration. This is often a concerning dynamic with the PLA regular amphibious warfare preparation drills in the Taiwan strait or flights over Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. They raise the question as to whether the activities are merely training or a PRC effort to “position” itself for a rapid, unexpected surprise attack.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
