By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The People’s Liberation Army Air Force appears to be massively upgrading its now operational fleet of 5th-generation stealthy J-20 aircraft with additional thrust and maneuver capability, F-22-like supercruise speed, new air-to-air weapons and a two-seat variant of the aircraft.
The Pentagon’s 2023 China report, called Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China cites concerns about a number of PLA Air Force enhancements now underway for the J-20.
“The PLAAF is preparing upgrades for the J-20, which may include increasing the number of air-to-air missiles (AAM) the fighter can carry in its low-observable configuration, installing thrust-vectoring engine nozzles, and adding supercruise capability by installing higher-thrust indigenous WS-15 engines,” the report states.
In November 2022, high-resolution photos published in several news publications and public sources revealed over 208 J-20 fighters have been built.
Read Warriors Expert Analysis of the J-20 HERE
Certainly Chinese papers write about the J-20s maturation, demonstrations and technologies such as its WS-15 domestically-built engine, yet apart from a few training missions, the J-20 has not been airborne much near areas where it might be seen up close. This was the thinking of one prominent Chinese expert researcher and former high-level US military official who suggested that perhaps the J-20 was kept from flying within Taiwan’s ADIZ to prevent it from being seen by Taiwan’s air defenses, surveillance planes or fighter jets at close range.
Two-Seat Variant of the J-20
The Pentagon report also cites the emergence of a Chinese two-seat J-20 configuration, suggesting it might introduce new kinds of missions possibilities.
At the beginning of 2021, the Chinese Global Times newspaper quoted unnamed military analysts citing the merits of a two-seat J-20.
“The twin-seat variation of the J-20 could be used for electronic warfare, command of wingman drones or bombing, and the domestic engine means the J-20 is no longer reliant on Russian engines,” the Chinese government-backed Global Times stated in the previous report, citing military analysts.
What does this mean? A 5th-generation stealthy “top gun”-like F-14 Tomcat? Maybe. However, unlike the famous 1980s era Tomcat which emerged prior to the large-scale explosion of AI-enabled computing, a 5th-gen fighter carrying a two-man crew raises some interesting questions and dynamics. The F-14 Tomcat came to exist well in advance of today’s AI-empowered sensing, computing, targeting, networking and information analysis.
The addition of a second seat to the 5th-Gen stealth fighter presents some interesting questions, as it does potentially add new decision-making variables to air combat such as drone coordination, EW, or intelligence analysis in the air. What would this mean? A stealthy, 5th-generation F=14 Tomcat-like two-seater to ensure collaborative human decision making? Will this add weight, drag and redundancy and compromise mission speed and efficacy? The question is worth exploring.
J-20 2-Seat Advantages
Should connectivity be lost, jammed, disabled or compromised in a combat situation, command and control could at least temporarily disappear, creating a circumstance wherein having an extra set of human eyes, observational faculties and decision making capability could certainly bring a tactical advantage. While human eyes might not necessarily see any farther, clearer or better than advanced cameras, another person might introduce new variations of intelligence analysis
Perhaps a second pilot, or aviator, could oversee the operation of nearby drones, analyze and decide upon an interwoven tapestry of threat information, or coordinate communication with nearby air and ground assets should the main pilot be engaged in pressing combat tasks?
J-20 Manned-Unmanned Teaming
Certainly the prevailing wisdom regarding manned-unmanned teaming seems to indicate that warfare effectiveness is best served by an optimal blend of high-speed, AI-enabled sensors and computers along with faculties and attributes unique to human cognition.
Man-machine interface, as it’s called, can synergize more subjective variables and attributes associated with human decision making with high-speed, data analysis and organization. Certainly when it comes to gathering, organizing and performing certain kinds of data analysis, high-speed, AI-empowered computing and information processing performs exponentially better than humans, yet computers may not yet be able to approximate more subjective phenomena less calculable or measurable by mathematically-oriented computer algorithms.
Dynamic human decision making offers attributes far superior to anything machines can interpret in many respects. Combining both, therefore, seems to be the consensus among leading Pentagon weapons developers.
Therefore, could a two-man crew enabled J-20 introduce double the amount of man-machine interface potential possible in the sky? Perhaps the vast volumes of information made available by advanced sensing generates so much data which, even if organized, streamlined and analyzed by computers, may best be utilized by more than one human decision-maker in the air?
US-Air Force AI-Copilot
It may be that the U.S. Air Force’s experiment last year using a human pilot in tandem with an AI-enabled computerized co-pilot offers the best option, given that so much information can now be gathered, analyzed, streamlined and transmitted in accurate and highly relevant ways without needing human intervention. Maybe so much can be done effectively by computers in terms of matching threats against a database library, analyzing prior war scenarios to find the best weapon for a particular scenario, or assessing navigational, weather and ground target information in relation to one another in milliseconds, that having a human supported by a computerized AI-pilot may be the best approach.
The AI algorithm, called ARTUu, flew along with a human pilot on a U-2 Dragon Lady spy plane, performing tasks that would “otherwise be done by a pilot,” an Air Force report from 2020 about the development stated. “ARTUu’s primary responsibility was finding enemy launchers while the pilot was on the lookout for threatening aircraft, both sharing the U-2’s radar,” the Air Force report said.
Computer algorithms enabling near real-time analytics have informed some experiments and simulations wherein drone fighter jets prevailed in dogfights against human pilots, or at least performed successfully in many respects. Therefore, given technological progress, why would an extra person be added at a time when humans are, if anything, increasingly being removed or decreased from operations? Machines are increasingly performing more vital combat functions faster than humans can, increasing the likelihood that more drone fighter jets will emerge in the future.
J-20 “Bomb Truck”
Does the J-20 have the ability to develop an F-22-like Supercruise capacity to maintain travel at supersonic speeds without needing afterburning? The idea would be for the aircraft to rival the F-22.
The J-20 does operate with a “bomb-truck” like capacity to deliver more ordnance than an F-35 on a single mission, as it can take off with 27,998 pounds of internal and external ordnance, compared with an F-35 in beast mode which can travel with 18,000 pounds of weapons. The J-31 can also travel with a heavy load of weapons, as its maximum take-off capacity is listed as being at 28,000 kg.A full internal and external weapons complement, however, would certainly compromise stealth by generating a larger and more precise radar return signal to adversary air defenses.
In terms of pure speed and thrust-to-weight ratio, there are some interesting observations to be made, as the J-20 is reported to be faster than the F-35, yet not as fast as the F-22 Raptor. The J-20 is listed as being able to operate at a max speed of Mach 2.0 and the J-31 is slated with speeds up to Mach 1.8. Speed for both the J-20 and J-31 are less than the F-22s Mach 2.25 speed, yet faster than the F-35s speed at Mach 1.6. The F-22 also has the most advanced thrust to weight ratio in the world, and is therefore able to maneuver, vector and out-run enemy air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles in ways that are likely to be unrivaled.
The capabilities and mission plans for the J-20 are likely to remain elusive for quite some time, given its conspicuous absence from training missions or visible flights, yet China is amassing a sizeable fleet of the aircraft and does often report on the J-20’s attributes. The J-20 is particularly critical for PLA Air Force in terms of projecting 5th-generation air power beyond its borders. The J-20 is a land launched aircraft, and the PLA’s carrier-launched 5th-Gen J-31 is not here yet, placing China at a massive 5th-gen deficit over the ocean. However, should operations take place within several hundred miles of the Chinese coastline, then yes J-20s could figure prominently, yet being restricted to land launch and take-off massive limits the aircraft’s reach.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
