By Patrick Mondaca, Warrior Non-Resident Fellow — Mondaca is a PhD candidate at The Royal Military College of Canada in War Studies
What is the Iranian Nuclear Threat to Israel?
The United Nations’ top nuclear official, Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned in January that Iran has amassed enough highly enriched uranium to build “several nuclear weapons” if it chooses. Iranian diplomats have long denied any such ambitions by pointing to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s 2003 fatwa against “the production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons,” which are forbidden under Islam. Khamenei repeated this assertion in March 2015 when he cited this fatwa and Iran’s not needing “a nuclear weapon either in the present time or in the future.” However, since the collapse of a 2015 international nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aimed at preventing Iran’s development of materials for such weapons, Iranian officials have spoken openly about the Islamic Republic’s ability to produce an atomic bomb.
Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Khamenei, told Al Jazeera in July 2022 that despite having the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb, “there has been no decision by Iran to build one.” Likewise, in August 2022, Iran’s nuclear energy chief, Mohammad Eslami, reiterated that “Iran has the technical ability to build an atomic bomb, but such a programme is not on the agenda.” Whether such rhetoric is more bluster than reality is debatable, as both IAEA and U.S. Department of Defense officials have emphasized the distinction between having the materials and having the actual technological capabilities necessary to produce a nuclear weapon. According to U.S. intelligence assessments cited in an October report to Congress, Iran “has not mastered all of the necessary technologies for building such weapons.”
A 2007 National Intelligence Estimate assessed that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. But it also assessed with “moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.” The IAEA then concluded in a 2009 internal report that “Overall the Agency does not believe that Iran has yet achieved the means of integrating a nuclear payload into the Shahab 3 missile with any confidence that it would work. Nonetheless, with further effort it is likely that Iran will overcome problems and confidence will be built up.” But with one of the most sophisticated missile programs in the Middle East and existing ballistic capabilities of 1,200 miles within striking distance of Tel Aviv, the Iranian nuclear weapons threat to Israel is a legitimate and growing concern. It is thus, as has been reiterated by U.S. intelligence officials, a question of capabilities and intent.
Does Iran currently have the materials necessary to produce a nuclear weapon capable of striking Israel currently? And if it does have the materials, does it have the technological know-how for which to build such a weapon? Iran claims it does. U.S. intelligence and defense officials didn’t seem to think so—sixteen years ago. But they did think that Iran would “eventually” have both the materials and the technical ability to build a nuclear warhead if it wanted to. According to that same National Intelligence Estimate, “We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.” It should be emphasized, again, that this assessment was in 2007. And since that time, Iran has continued to advance the conventional ballistic platforms and technology required for the delivery of any potential nuclear warhead.
In June, Iran announced its development of a new solid-propellant hypersonic missile, the Fattah, purportedly capable of traveling at speeds of “up to 15 times the speed of sound and hitting” Tel Aviv in “400 seconds.” And on November 19, 2023, Iran announced an upgraded version of the weapon, the Fattah II, with a liquid-propellant engine and an increased range “just shy of 2,000 kilometers.” No longer bound by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and with IAEA’s most experienced experts now barred from executing their mandate within the country, there is little that remains between Iran’s arming the Fattah—or any of the other missiles in its arsenal—with a nuclear warhead besides a two-decade old fatwa of questionable meaning. As Iranian intelligence minister, Mahmoud Alavi, warned in February 2021 regarding production of such a warhead, “if pushed, then it wouldn’t be Iran’s fault but those who pushed it.”
As for Israel, it has also long refused to confirm or deny its own aspirations for or possession of nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists put Israel’s stockpile of nuclear weapons at “roughly 90 warheads” in January 2022. But the far-right Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu appeared to acknowledge Israeli nuclear weapons earlier this month when he said in a radio interview that a nuclear attack on the Gaza strip was “one way” to deal with Hamas terrorists. Members of Israel’s war cabinet quickly condemned the comment with Prime Minister Netanyahu saying that “Eliyahu’s statements are not based in reality.” Eliyahu himself then walked back the comment saying that it was clearly “metaphorical,” and he’s since been suspended from cabinet meetings. Was it metaphorical? Perhaps. But what isn’t is that Israel and Iran are enemies armed with nuclear weapons or very close to being so. And given that Israel is a country roughly the size and population of New Jersey, any nuclear attack on its territory would be more than devastating.
For those hedging their security on a fatwa should remember that fatwas can be somewhat, as one scholar called it, “malleable.” Take sturgeon, for example: Prior to 1979, the fish was haram—or forbidden by Islamic law—since it was thought not to have scales. But when Iranian sturgeon export earnings tanked, religious authorities brought in some zoologists to take a closer look. They pointed out that some sturgeon have scales, and the others probably did at one point too but lost them through evolution. Voilà, the fatwa goes away, and the sturgeon money starts rolling in again. And then there’s chess: it was considered haram until 1988 when it was declared by the Ayatollah to be permissible—if there’s no gambling involved. Fatwas change. Ayatollahs change their interpretations of Islam. Some develop a taste for caviar, BMWs, and John Steinbeck. Let’s hope this one doesn’t develop a taste for a nuclear warhead.
By Patrick Mondaca, PhD candidate is a Warrior Contributor — Mondaca is a PhD candidate at The Royal Military College of Canada in War Studies
