By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
(Washington DC) The US Army is massively revving up its ability to produce large quantities of munitions such that the monthly output for 155mm artillery shells, anti-tank rounds for Javelins and precision rockets such as Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems will triple in just the next few years.
Of great significance, however, is that the ramp up is not only geared toward ongoing support to Ukraine but also grounded in Army modernization strategies intended to sustain, upgrade and deliver high volumes of precision munitions. Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth recently told reporters that production ramp up efforts in support of Ukraine are entirely aligned with both short and long-term Army objectives.
“We went from about 14,000 munitions per month to production rates of about 20,000 per month. We expect to be up to 75,000 by mid 2025. We are doing that in similar ways with Javelins. We are trying to increase those production lines and pull those to the left as much as possible,” Wormuth said. “Throughout the process of arming Ukrainians, we have been careful to balance their needs with our need to stay ready. We’re working closely with industry to increase production capacity on things like GMLRS, Javelin and 155mm artillery.”
Wormuth explained the support for Ukraine in terms of a careful balancing act in which the US sustains impactful assistance, yet does so in a way that preserves or even bolsters and supports the US Army’s production needs. In certain respects, it appears the two efforts can synchronize to a degree and support one another, particularly in the case of certain weapons and munitions. Increasing industrial capacity and adding new contracting mechanisms for US industry to support Ukraine also brings the added effect of bolstering production as needed for the US.
“We put $ 1.2 billion in the ‘24 budget to invest in our industrial base and we’ve invested $ 2.1 billion into munitions, from GMLRS up to Patriot. We want to make sure we can continue to assist Ukrainians. There are things like Patriots which the Ukrainians have used to very good effect which they would like more of. We have to weigh carefully as Patriot is a finite quantity,” Wormuth explained.
There are likely several key reasons why the US Army is emphasizing munitions production for its own future along with of course establishing mechanisms to sustain long-term support for Ukraine. While the Army has for years now been quite focused on precision guidance for land munitions, ongoing modernization efforts involving breakthrough innovations are massively increasing the attack range of land-fired weapons and improving guidance technology.
The Army’s GPS-guided Excalibur 155mm artillery shells for instance, blasted onto the scene during the war in Iraq in 2007, ushering in a new era in precision-fired ground war. There was a similar situation with GMLRS, a GPS and inertial measurement unit guided rocket able to pinpoint land targets at ranges out to 80km. Since this time during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the Army has doubled the range of its 155mm artillery through a program called Extended Range Cannon Artillery. Wormuth explained that, despite some delays, the ERCA program continues to show great promise. The basic concept is to “outrange” the enemy and enable stand-off precision attack in support of maneuver formations and Combined Arms Maneuver. Beyond range, the Army has in recent years been breaking through with previously unprecedented guidance technologies with programs such as the Army’s Excalibur “shaped trajectory” round which uses a new-generation of seeker and guidance technology to “course correct” artillery in flight and, for example, shift directions to destroy an enemy vehicle hidden behind a bridge or on another side of a ridge.
Yet another key dynamic relates to the close-eye with which Army leadership is watching the current war in Ukraine with a mind to modernization efforts and evolving tactics and concepts of operation. Clearly the success of dispersed, dismounted groups of decentralized mobile fighters armed with anti-armor weapons have shown remarkable success against heavy armor. While heavy armor is of course not going anywhere for obvious reasons, the tactical success of hand-held anti-tank weapons is likely informing emerging concepts of future mechanized warfare. Improved ranges and guidance technologies, when combined with advanced ground surveillance, overhead ISR and next-generation warhead and explosive technology, can exact previously unprecedented kinds of battlefield effects against heavy armor. These factors, when fortified by enterprising tactics such as those used by Ukrainians, have already been noticed in great detail by the Pentagon. To a clear extent, Ukrainian anti-armor tactics informed the Marine Corps Force Design 2030 strategy text which specifically cites Ukraine as having influenced Corps thinking about future war. Improved mobile anti-armor lethality, when combined with “harder-to-target” decentralized formations, drones, unmanned systems and multi-domain networking can introduce new, highly effective Concepts of Operation.
What all of these developments seem to suggest is the Army is also seeing the long-term tactical and conceptual impact of how emerging technology affects maneuver formations and combat tactics.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
