By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
There will be an urgent and pressing need to “hide in plain sight” on a “transparent” future battlefield due to ubiquitous, multi-domain sensors, according to Army intel researchers, who clearly explain that … in a future combat environment … “if it can be seen … it can be killed.”
Deception, jamming, spoofing, camouflage and “hiding” heat, electromagnetic and light signatures will be the key to survival and prosperity in future war, explains an interesting new research study by the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command G2 called “The Operational Environment 2024-2034 Large-Scale Combat Operations.”
The essay, which involved research and analysis of current and expected future warfare dynamics, tactics and concepts of operation, sought to anticipate future warfare and best position the Army to fight and win in a hyperconnected, multi-domain, high-tech combat sphere.
Increased Combat Networking
“The modern battlefield is growing progressively more transparent because of the proliferation of advanced technologies—smart devices, sensors, emitters, etc.—as well as the emergence of hyper-connected global communications and social media,” the essay states.
Low and Medium-Earth Orbit satellites are emerging by the hundreds bringing additional surveillance, imagery, throughput and networking to future combat, drones are multiplying exponentially in swarms with the specific aim of blanketing areas with surveillance, overwhelming enemy air defenses and launching “suicide” strikes acting like munitions themselves. Long range sensors from surveillance planes and medium and high altitude drones are now equipped with much higher levels of resolution and image fidelity, able to zoom in closely and gather precise data from unprecedented distances. Thousands of unmanned ground, air and surface platforms, robots, sensors and vehicles are likely to span across a multi-domain warzone, leaving nowhere for forces to hide themselves from view. High-tech, advanced heat-sensors will detect thermal signatures through heavy vegetation and weather obscurants and secure networking of surveillance data and image collection will enable a high-speed transfer of data from inside buildings, behind ridges, accross mountains or positioned in many otherwise undetectable locations.
Modern Large Scale Combat Operations
“Modern LSCO will be a competition between the hiders and the finders, with only fleeting exploitation opportunities for both. If a target can be seen, it can be killed. The ability of the Army to protect itself on this transparent battlefield will be paramount to its survival and success. The ability to hide in plain sight takes on even greater importance with the mass and precision of modern weapons systems,” the text of the report states.
A large concern with this kind of phenomenon is that advanced, AI-enabled computer algorithms are increasingly capable of processing and analyzing massive pools of incoming sensor data to identify moments and objects of great relevance. The process of gathering, analyzing, processing, exploiting and disseminating information, called PED, is becoming faster, more efficient, multi-domain and ubiquitious.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
