By Olawale Abaire, Warrior Editorial Fellow
The United States Air Force (USAF) has initiated a comprehensive re-evaluation of its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, aimed at developing a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet. This strategic move comes as a response to the program’s escalating costs, estimated at $250 million per unit, and the need to prioritize resources for other critical programs.
The primary driver behind the USAF’s re-evaluation of the NGAD program is the need to reduce costs. The estimated cost of the NGAD fighter jet is approximately three times that of the F-35, making it a costly investment for the USAF. To address this, USAF Secretary Frank Kendall has revealed that the service is exploring options for a simpler and smaller engine for the NGAD fighter, which could significantly reduce costs. Additionally, the program’s redesign aims to ensure seamless integration with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drone fleets, a critical component of the USAF’s future force structure.
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Addressing this speculation, USAF Secretary Frank Kendall, in an interview with Defense News, assured that the effort to create an advanced next-generation fighter continues, albeit with necessary redesigns to manage costs and enhance integration with “loyal wingman” drones. Secretary Kendall highlighted a crucial strategy to mitigate costs: equipping the NGAD fighter with a simpler, smaller engine than initially planned. This approach reflects the broader aim to sustain the concept of the NGAD family of systems, ensuring that these aircraft can effectively cooperate with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drone fleets. The financial implications are stark; with the NGAD fighter potentially costing three times as much as an F-35, affordability becomes a significant constraint, limiting the fleet size to small quantities.
The USAF’s re-evaluation has surprised many military analysts, given the program’s classified status and long-standing development efforts. Initially, the plan envisioned the delivery of 200 NGAD fighters by the 2030s, a target now appearing increasingly unattainable. In recent history, the USAF has had to abandon several high-profile programs, such as the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), due to similar budgetary constraints. The prioritization of other critical systems, like the B-21 Raider bomber, underscores the USAF’s strategic pivot as it braces for possible conflicts with near-peer adversaries like China.
The NGAD program has been envisaged as a comprehensive “system of systems,” integrating manned jets, unmanned drones, advanced network technologies, new munitions, powerful engines, and sophisticated electronic warfare suites. The redefined NGAD, with its less complex and smaller-engine design, raises questions about its ability to maintain the USAF’s air superiority, especially as it is intended to replace the F-22 Raptor, the current frontline stealth fighter.
Now, the uncertainty surrounding the NGAD also casts doubt on the future of the CCA program. Originally, the USAF planned to acquire 1,000 CCAs to operate alongside the NGAD and F-35 fighters. Secretary Kendall explained this figure at the Air and Space Forces Association Warfare Symposium 2023, emphasizing the strategic importance of pairing these platforms to enhance overall combat effectiveness.
Despite these challenges, the USAF maintains that the NGAD program remains a cornerstone of its future force structure. “The DAF [Department of the Air Force] is moving forward with a family of systems for the next generation of air dominance,” Kendall reiterated, emphasizing the integration of both NGAD platforms and collaborative unmanned aircraft to provide affordable mass and increased cost-effectiveness.
The future of the USAF’s sixth-generation aircraft and air superiority objectives remains clouded with uncertainty. While Secretary Kendall assures the stability of the NGAD program, experts warn of broader strategic repercussions amidst evolving global threats.
