By Col. Bill Bruner (RET.), CEO, New Frontier Aerospace, Warrior Contributor
The Pentagon’s vision of AI-enabled drone swarms, overwhelming adversaries with sheer numbers and precision, is a tempting one. While this strategy might hold promise in the tight confines of European battlefields, its effectiveness across the vast distances of the Pacific theater is concerning. This paradox, the mismatch between technology and geography, demands a closer look.
The proposed swarm strategy relies on short-range Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS), with public sources suggesting a maximum range of less than 100 kilometers. This might be sufficient for the European theater, where distances are generally shorter and terrain offers more opportunities for concealment. But in the Pacific, where island chains stretch for thousands of kilometers and the adversary possesses advanced anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, this limited range becomes a critical vulnerability.
Consider the logistical challenges. Deploying and maintaining a swarm of drones across vast distances requires a robust network of forward operating bases, capable of providing logistics, maintenance, and C4ISR support. Establishing such a network in the Pacific, where access is highly contested, would be a daunting task, potentially leaving the drone swarm exposed to enemy attack while still on the ground.
New Frontier Engineers First of its Kind Vertical Take-Off Hypersonic Drone
Furthermore, even fully autonomous drone swarms require reliable communication and data links for battle damage assessment and re-tasking. In the Pacific’s vast expanse, signal jamming and disruption of these links would become potent tools in an adversary’s arsenal. An autonomous swarm reliant on short-range communications might be vulnerable to electronic warfare, rendering its AI capabilities less effective and leaving it susceptible to counter-attacks.
Rather than pursuing a short-range autonomous swarm strategy in the Pacific, the U.S. should focus on developing long range, ultra high-speed autonomous swarms.
These systems, derived from hypersonic VTOL systems currently being developed in the private sector, would be much less vulnerable to attack – both on the ground and in the air.
This would involve a reasonable investment in autonomous hypersonic VTOL UAS platforms with extended ranges – with the ability to deliver low cost, attritable hypersonic precision munitions over much longer distances than the platforms currently being considered.
These reusable, hypersonic platforms would operate at speeds and altitudes that would make them highly survivable – and would facilitate the creation of an advanced “near-space” sensor and communication network that would help to overcome the challenges posed by the Pacific’s vast distances and complex electronic warfare environment.
The Pacific theater demands a strategic approach that overcomes the unique challenges of geography and the evolving nature of warfare. The U.S. must invest in technologies and capabilities that ensure a decisive edge in the long game. Failure to do so risks leaving the U.S. ill-prepared for the realities of the Pacific theater, where the distance between ambition and reality can be vast indeed.
Retired Col. Bill Bruner, Warrior Contributor…Bruner is a former NASA Assistant Administrator – led Congressional Affairs for the entire Agency – landed $15+ billion annual budgets.Air Force Aviator & Col. with Bronze Star for meritorious service in combat. Pentagon Office Director – represented the Secretary of Defense at senior White House meetings.Grad, USAF Fighter Weapons & Advanced Airpower Schools
