By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
(Washington D.C.) Recognizing the core paradox fundamental to strategic nuclear deterrence …. meaning that destructive lethal nuclear warheads are engineered and preserved for the distinct purpose of “not” being used to prevent war and keep the peace …. the Pentagon must nonetheless ensure its nuclear arsenal is sufficiently modernized to keep pace with a changing threat environment. This includes several key areas of DoD emphasis, such as engineering a new generation of warhead technology designed for increased reliability, lethality, precision targeting and versatility.
Several key examples include the emergence of the upgraded B-61 mod 12 nuclear bomb, a modified variant of several variants of the classic air dropped B-61 in existence for decades. The W-88 warhead is developed for the Trident II D5 and the W-93 is an upgraded version of the W-76 and W-88 submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead for Columbia-class submarines. Overall, very few details regarding these warheads are available for public discussion for security reasons, yet there are some key general parameters fundamental to nuclear warhead modernization being emphasized by the Pentagon.
“There are different kinds of modernization programs. There’s life extensions, there’s weapons modifications, there are alterations and there’s acquisitions. The B61-12 has had activities conducted to enhance its accuracy of delivery of that warhead. And many of these are looking at more accurate delivery systems, fusing systems and radar enhancements,” Ret. Capt. Bill Ostendorff, a former Navy submariner who works on the Board of Managers of the National Technology of Engineering Solutions at Sandia Laboratories, told Warrior in a special Warrior-NucleCast “Future Series” PodCast. Ostendorff is also the Co-Chair of the Committee of Risk of Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism, National Academy of Sciences. He was also the former Deputy Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration.
Precision Nuclear Attack
Nuclear warhead experts with the Pentagon and military services recognize that today’s modern threat environments present a much more complex countermeasure environment in which adversaries use new technologies and methods to intercept,thwart, derail or disable nuclear warheads in flight to decrease the likelihood that they will continue on to their targets with precision accuracy. This creates a circumstance such that Pentagon warhead modernization experts need to increasingly “counter” the enemies’ “countermeasures” to ensure re-entry vehicles operate with an ability to precisely destroy an intended target. These innovations not only include the development of more advanced and effective decoys but also inspire the maturation of newer, higher-fidelity sensitive radar technologies. As expected much detail regarding these technologies is naturally not available, yet generally speaking, improved radar can enable a warhead to identify and elude enemy countermeasures with increased guidance, maneuverability and the ability to adapt course in flight to continue on its intended trajectory to a target.
“I think there’s been a lot of work done on advancing radar systems, which are necessary for some of our nuclear warheads. And Sandia Lab has a very prominent role to play in the development of radar systems that support the stockpile,” Ostendorff said.
Digital Engineering
One of the key areas of advancement regarding warhead modernization has been enabled by increased use of digital engineering, a process through which extremely precise computer simulations replicate key performance parameters of weapons systems. By using exact computer modeling technologies, developers can tailor warhead designs to ensure improved performance before “bending metal.”
“We know so much more today about warheads and delivery system performance because of the use of modeling and simulation tools. And that’s been really a credit to the scientists and engineers throughout the entire NNSA and DOD complex that they’ve been able to muster these qualifications and conduct these tests in a way that gives us confidence that these weapons will work in the tough environment they’re going to be anticipated to be in,” Ostendorf explained.
Ostendorff added that in some cases, developers are looking at using other materials for the construction of these warheads.
“I’ll note that during the early stages of the atomic phase after World War II, some of the materials that were used in the 1950s and 60s had some environmental threats associated with them. There’s been a lot of progress made in material science in these warhead extension programs to ensure that we’re using the best weapon components capable of fulfilling the mission,” he said.
There is a coordinated “tri-lab” group of scientists working on these enhancements involving Los Alamos and Sandia National Laboratories.
“As part of that tri-lab group, the laboratories have a coordinating activity underway to ensure that digital engineering skills and techniques and tools are used to predict exactly how a weapon might come together. And there’s a lot of exciting developments in this area,” Ostendorff added.
Warhead Accuracy
Much of the emphasis regarding nuclear warhead modernization pertains to the clear task of improving accuracy, an area where there continues to be substantial progress, Ostendorff explained. One result of improved accuracy is that an intended combat effect can be achieved with fewer warheads. For example, while existing Ohio-class nuclear capable ballistic missile submarines currently operate with 24 missile tubes, the new
Columbia-class replacement will only have 16 missile tubes.
“The ability to have a more accurately delivered weapon, in some cases, can equate to having fewer missile requirements. And so the W-88 alteration that’s underway for the Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missile is being developed along those lines,” he said.
Part of this effort includes the ongoing engineering of a new W-93 nuclear warhead design to replace the current W-76 and W-88.
“A longer term acquisition program that’s relevant to this missile is the W-93. It’s a new warhead design, but it’s based on previously demonstrated design, so it does not require nuclear testing. And that’s to be the future warhead for the submarine-launched ballistic missile force,” Ostendorff described.
Most of the information regarding the W-93 is not available, but Ostendorff did say it’s going to be designed to be consistent and compliant with previously tested designs.
“It will not require any nuclear explosive testing to certify it for the stockpile,” he said.
Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
