By Olawale Abaire, Warrior Editorial Fellow
Recent developments in the Taiwan Strait have drawn significant attention from global military analysts. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) in Taiwan has reported the movement of 23 Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels in the vicinity of the island nation. This activity was observed between 6 a.m. on June 12 and 6 a.m. on June 13.
Notably, 19 of these aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s eastern and southwestern air defense identification zones (ADIZ). This incident is part of a broader pattern of increasing Chinese military maneuvers around Taiwan, prompting a detailed technical analysis of the strategic implications and potential outcomes. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been steadily increasing its military presence around Taiwan. The recent tracking of 23 aircraft and seven naval vessels is a continuation of a trend observed since September 2020. This pattern includes a significant number of incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and crossings of the median line, an unofficial boundary that both sides had respected for years to avoid direct confrontation.
The aircraft involved in these operations are typically a mix of fighters, bombers, and reconnaissance planes. The presence of bombers, in particular, suggests a show of force, demonstrating China’s capability to project power and deliver strategic strikes if necessary. The naval vessels involved are likely a combination of destroyers, frigates, and possibly submarines, enhancing the PLA’s ability to conduct multi-dimensional operations involving air, surface, and sub-surface assets.
In response to these incursions, Taiwan has deployed its own aircraft, naval vessels, and coastal-based missile systems. The Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) scrambles fighter jets to intercept and monitor the Chinese aircraft, while the Navy positions its vessels to track the movements of the PLA ships. The missile systems, likely including the Tien Kung (Sky Bow) and Patriot missile batteries, provide a robust layered defense against potential aerial threats.
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Taiwan’s defensive measures are designed to demonstrate readiness and deter further provocations. By consistently responding to PLA activities, Taiwan sends a clear signal of its resolve to defend its airspace and territorial waters. This posture is crucial in maintaining a balance of power in the region and preventing any miscalculations that could escalate into a larger conflict.
China’s actions are a classic example of grey zone tactics, which are defined as efforts beyond steady-state deterrence that aim to achieve security objectives without direct and sizable use of force. These tactics involve a combination of military pressure, psychological operations, and economic coercion to wear down an opponent over time.
Historically, grey zone tactics have been used to achieve strategic goals without triggering full-scale wars. In the context of the Taiwan Strait, China employs these tactics to gradually erode Taiwan’s resolve and international support. By maintaining a constant military presence and conducting frequent incursions, China aims to normalize its military operations around Taiwan and create a new status quo that undermines Taiwan’s de facto independence.
In response to China’s actions, the U.S. and its allies have increased their own military presence in the region. This includes conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) and joint military exercises with Taiwan and other regional partners. These measures are designed to reinforce international norms and deter further Chinese aggression.
