By Mark Episkopos, Managing Editor, Center for Military Modernization
China’s military flew 103 warplanes toward Taiwan within a 24-hour period, marking what the island’s defense officials referred to as a “recent high” in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) activity near Taiwanese territory.
The dangerous surge in Chinese plane activity was recorded between 6 a.m. on Sunday and 6 a.m. on Monday, according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry. As many as forty of the Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) through the median line in the Taiwan Strait. Dozens more came in from the south and turned away while flying along the island’s eastern coast.
Previously seen as a de facto point of demarcation between Taiwan and China, the median line has been increasingly ignored by People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft flying closer-than-ever to Taiwan as part of a bid to reassert China’s longstanding territorial claim on its eastern neighbor. “Taiwan is part of China. There is no such thing as the ‘median line,’” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said bluntly. In addition to PLA aircraft, up to nine Chinese military vessels were spotted in nearby waters during the incident.
“The People’s Liberation Army’s continued military harassment could easily cause a sharp increase in tensions and worsen regional security,” Taiwanese officials said, according to the Washington Post. “We call on the Beijing authorities to take responsibility and immediately stop such destructive unilateral actions.”
The latest Chinese incursion comes on the heels of a Taiwanese report highlighting the threat posed by China’s new Type 003 Fujian aircraft carrier, launched in June 2022. Fujian boasts key improvements over its Type 001 and Type 002 predecessor, notably including electromagnetic catapult devices that can be safer to operate and easier to maintain than steam-based systems. Electromagnetic catapults are currently only found on the cutting-edge U.S. Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers. Experts have assessed that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could field as many as five aircraft carriers by 2030, narrowing the regional capabilities gap that exists between the Chinese military and the U.S. Pacific Fleet.
While there is currently no indication that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, expert observers have warned that such an attack may come as soon as the end of 2024 or sometime in 2025.
The Chinese military launched large-scale drills earlier this year simulating an encirclement of Taiwan. The exercises mobilized “long-range rocket artillery, naval destroyers, missile boats, air force fighters, bombers, jammers and refuellers” for the purpose of “shaping an all-round encirclement and deterrence posture.”
There is widespread expert consensus that Beijing has the capability to successfully seal off the island, making it necessary for Taipei’s partners to ensure that Taiwan has everything it needs to defend itself before an invasion commences. Taipei announced in August that it will be spending an additional $2.97 billion on defense, half of which will reportedly go toward purchases of fighter jets and the rest to be spent on upgrading the country’s naval defenses. That announcement was preceded by the State Department’s $500 million sale of infrared search and track systems for F-16 fighters to Taipei. The new equipment offers a significant capabilities bump to Taiwan’s already-capable F-16V, improving the 4.5 generation fighter’s performance against attacking PLAAF aircraft– including other fighters, rotary-wing aircraft, and even some types of drones– in the crucial opening days of a Chinese invasion.
The State Department approved an $80 million military aid package to Taiwan late last month. Though modest in terms of concrete battlefield impact, the transfer bears a newfound political significance: the $80 million was drawn from what is primarily a grant account for military assistance to sovereign countries, the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, signaling the White House’s continued and growing commitment to Taiwan’s defense.
Mark Episkopos is the new Managing Editor of the Center for Military Modernization. Episkopos is a journalist, researcher, and analyst writing on national security and international relations issues. He is also a Ph.D. candidate in history at American University.
