By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior
The US Navy’s forward deployed carrier in the Pacific is being re-stocked, re-fueled and re-supplied for extended deterrence missions in the Philippine Sea region as the Pentagon emphasizes continued forward presence amid an increasingly tense US-Chinese relationship. Tensions with the Philippines have been flaring as well, a circumstance perhaps underscoring the urgency of the continued ability of the US Navy to project massive air attack power throughout the region if needed.
Philippine “Fait-Accompli”
The USS Ronald Reagan has been deployed on the Philippine Sea and has now received supplies from Military Sealift Command-launched EC-225 Super Puma helicopter and undergoing a “replenishment and fueling-at-sea” for continued deterrence operations. Operating as a floating city with thousands of sailors and hundreds of attack planes and helicopters, the USS Ronald Reagan is likely having its deployment extended to ensure critical “proximity.” The more the People’s Liberation Army – Navy and -Air Force continue to encircle Taiwan and “blockade” small Philippine fishing boats, the more the US Navy needs to operate within striking distance of PRC forces threatening its allies in the region. A short departure, port-visit or venture out of the Philippine Sea for any period of time could potentially leave the Philippines extremely vulnerable to a surprise Chinese attack. Pentagon reports on China, for example, regularly express concern over a “fait accompli” scenario for Taiwan, referring to a Chinese attempt to quickly annex the island faster than any allied force could respond. The thinking with this would likely be that the PRC would seek to make it too costly in lives and dollars to amass a large US-Japanese-South Korean force sufficient to invade and “dislodge” or “extricate” a Chinese force occupying Taiwan, thus simply allow a new status quo to stand, “fait accompli.”
Certainly this same scenario could prove possible with the Philippines. Why not launch a “fait accompli” massive surprise take-over of The Philippines before any allied force can respond? There might be a time window with this should the US Navy substantially decrease its forward presence in the area, before larger amounts of US equipment and weapons arrive at new US bases in the Philippines. Standing alone, The Philippine military would likely be extremely vulnerable to a much larger attacking Chinese surface, undersea and air force.
Carrier Strike Group — FirePower Defends Philippines
Without ship-launched ballistic missile interceptors firing from US Destroyers and Cruisers, upgraded Tactical Tomahawk missiles in range to track and destroy moving enemy ship targets at Sea, an ability to launch drones from the ocean or simply unleash massive combat power in the air to hold Chinese surface and air forces at risk …. The Philippines could be extremely vulnerable. Should the PLA – Navy be operating in the area, as it has been recently, it could be positioned to attack and take over The Philippines very quickly. According to GlobalFirepower.com, for example, The Philippines only operates 25 attack jets and two Navy Frigates. The Philippines has no aircraft carriers and only 10-tanks and 150,000 active duty troops. This means the Philippines would have little to no chance of stopping or even slowing down any kind of Chinese amphibious attack which could begin with missile strikes from warships off shore, followed by helicopters, cargo-planes, small attack boats and submarines surging toward the Philippine coast as part of an amphibious takeover. The small number of Philippine ground forces and armored vehicles could mean a Chinese amphibious landing with armored vehicles would be in position to quickly overrun Philippine defenses and occupy the island.
USS Ronald Reagan Protects Philippines
Given these variables, proximity and speed of response would likely be a deciding factor for US and allied forces, should they suddenly be required to respond to or repel a Chinese attack on the Philippines or Taiwan. Part of the concern is that the PRC may use what could be seen as routine training missions as a pretext to launch a surprise attack, essentially annexing Taiwan or even the Philippines faster than a US-allied force could sufficiently respond. Should a US carrier such as the USS Ronald Reagan and its carrier strike group be operating within several hundred miles of Philippine or Taiwanese shores, ocean-launched 5th-generation aircraft could quickly deny air supremacy to any advancing or invading Chinese amphibious force. This is likely a key reason why the Reagan and its carrier strike group remain in the Philippine Sea, as the PRC is likely aware that, without air superiority or impactful 5th-generation support, its attacking force would be extremely vulnerable to US 5th-generation aircraft in position to destroy them from the air. Certainly the Chinese could operate some of its land-launched J-20 helicopters in support of a Taiwan invasion given that the island is only 100 miles away – yet reaching the Philippine shores or even presenting a credible challenge to US Navy carrier and amphib launched F-35Cs and F-35Bs would likely prove quite difficult.
Should the USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Air Wing be docked at port or simply outside of the attack ranges needed to defend Taiwan and the Philippines, the PLA might be in position to rapidly surprise Taiwan or the Philippines with a quick take-over. China may be looking to capitalize upon a short time window, given that the US and The Philippines recently reached an agreement to add four new large military bases in the country able to house US weapons, assets and personnel in position to defend the island and the region. It certainly seems feasible that the US might base a large number of F-35As, air defenses, radar systems or even large warships from its bases on Philippine shores. This kind of presence, which could involve heavily fortified land and air defenses on the coast of the Philippines, would likely make things very difficult for the PRC should it wish to invade or take-over the Philippines.
What all of this amounts to is that the continued US air and surface warship presence in the Philippine Sea is taking on new urgency given the speed with which a Chinese confrontation or military take-over could transpire. This is why supplies, food, fuel and perhaps even technological equipment such as supplemental or replacement parts are now delivered to the USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Strike Group in the Philippine Sea.
