Does China Truly Have the Power to Take Taiwan? Now?

By Logan Williams, Warrior Editorial Fellow

The Center for Security and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a survey of the opinions of various defense and foreign relations experts, from the United States and Taiwan, alike, which it published on January 22nd, 2024.

CSIS asked these experts to provide their expert analysis on a number of crucial questions, in regards to the boiling tensions in the Indo-Pacific. These scholars’ answers paint an interesting picture of the potential for future conflict with China.

First, it is important to note that over 70-percent of these scholars stated that China did not possess the military might to pull off a successful amphibious assault upon Taiwan, and the Taiwanese experts were even more confident of the PRC’s weakness, than those from the United States.

Secondly, in all instances, less than half of these experts described themselves as “completely confident” that the United States would intervene on Taiwan’s behalf, in the face of Chinese aggression.

Furthermore, in all instances of varying degrees of Chinese aggression, confidence remained exceptionally low that the United States’ partners and allies would step up, to assist the United States in defense of Taiwan.

Importantly, close to two-thirds of both the United States’ and Taiwanese experts stated that it was “likely” or “very likely” that the Taiwan Strait would conflagrate into a crisis, within this year — 2024. It is also important to note that these experts were in agreement, that the United States’ diplomatic efforts and attempts to salvage U.S.–PRC relations, would be ineffective and could do nothing to prevent conflict.