By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
(Washington DC) The Navy’s F-35B-armed USS America recently transited through the Coral Sea in the Pacific during the US-Australia Talisman Sabre interoperability combat readiness exercise, a move which shows continued Pentagon committment to ensuring “forward presence” in the Pacific theater.
While not necessarily surprising, this is quite significant for a number of reasons related to deterring China and responding to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. Response time, and forward presence of US Naval assets would likely be a decisive way in which a Chinese aerial or amphibious attack on Taiwan could be stopped….if they can get there in time.
The People’s Liberation Army – Navy is known for its sophistication and rapid expansion to a point such that it is now larger than the US Navy. While this does not mean the PLA Navy is in any way superior to the US Navy, but it certainly does indicate the seriousness of the threat posed by China on the ocean.
A clear US and allied advantage, however, would appear to exist in the air given the number of potentially available 5th-generation aircraft. China’s J-20 is land launched and, while a clear threat, not well positioned to challenge US and allied aircraft over the ocean. China’s carrier-launched 5th-gen J-31 does not appear to exist in impactful numbers, however the US and its allies are indeed positioned to operate an extremely lethal, coordinated force of F-35s across the Pacific. South Korea, Singapore and Australia already operate F-35s, and Japan has recently made a massive, multi-billion F-35 buy. Given that these F-35s are instantly and securely linked through the well known fleet-wide Multi-Function Advanced Data Link (MADL) and potentially capable of blanketing the Pacific with 5th-generation sensing and attack formations.
US Navy forward presence in the Pacific, something massively emphasized by the Pentagon, may be the determining factor in any engagement with China. For this reason, it might all come down to a question of response time. How fast can the US Navy and its allies coordinate a rapid response to Chinese attack? Will they be close enough to prevent the high risk of what Pentagon reports on China refer to as a “fait accompli” wherein the PRC annexes Taiwan faster than the US and its allies can respond. This would, perhaps by design, create a situation where it may simply be too costly in lives, dollars and war trauma to try to “extricate” Chinese forces occupying Taiwan, even if it were possible with a combined allied force. A Chinese attack would likely seek to exploit its proximity to Taiwan to launch an opening salvo of ballistic missiles to destroy Taiwanese weapons and air defenses, and “soften” its shores for an amphibious assault. An equal or larger concern is that China could seek to exploits its possible advantage in “hypersonic” weapons to create a protective envelope or access-denial area around Taiwan, should the US and allies be without comparable hypersonic weapons or an ability to intercept or destroy Chinese hypersonic missiles.
Therefore, speed and presence, therefore, provide the answers when it comes to preventing a massive, lightning-fast Chinese attack on Taiwan, particularly when it comes to having 5th-generation stealth aircraft in range. The Pentagon likely knows this, which is why there are so often many F-35-armed surface warships operating in the Pacific, with F-35s within striking range of the South China Sea, Taiwan coast and even mainland China.
Alas, all of this context explains the critical importance of forward positioning America-class amphibious assault ships in the Pacific, as they can operate with as many as 13 ro 15 F-35Bs. In one of its earliest deployments, the USS American transited parts of the South American continent with more than 13 F-35Bs on board, a capability likely to be of great value in any Pacific engagement.
F-35Cs from carriers, coupled with Guam-launched US air assets and amphib-launched F-35Bs could, if forward positioned within range of counterattack, most likely quickly destroy any Chinese amphibious attack. A PRC surprise amphibious attack build up would of course be seen by US and allied ISR and satellites, and any amphibious assault on Taiwan would have little chance of success without air superiority. With US and allied F-35s forward capable and close enough to intervene, the likelihood of decimating a Chinese Naval attack from the air would be quite high.
10-Year Navy Plan
The US Navy seems to have anticipated this scenario, as the service made specific and deliberate adjustments to its USS America and USS Tripoli America-class amphibs to enable the ships to better operate F-35Bs. These adjustments included reinforcing key ship infrastructure and adding special “non-skid” coating material to the deck to reduce the heat impact of F-35B vertical landings on deck. These upgrades to the America-class amphibious assault ships began more than 10-years ago and are not operational, creating a circumstance enabling US Navy amphibious assault ships to operate forward with a highly-lethal and substantial force of ocean-launched F-35s.
Kris Osborn President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
