Could Iranian Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles Threaten US Navy Carriers?

by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

For many years now, we’ve heard variations of different arguments about the extent to which long-range, precision-guided Chinese anti-ship “carrier killer” missiles could make US Navy carriers obsolete or at least very vulnerable and challenged to operate at distances within reach of attack.  Is this true? Certainly the Navy seems to recognize the seriousness of this threat and is fast evolving smaller, faster maritime warfare platforms, a growing sphere of unmanned systems and an ability extend fighter-jet attack range from distances where carriers might be less vulnerable. We’ve all heard of Chinese “carrier-killer” missiles as they have been widely discussed and “hyped” by Chinese-government backed newspapers.  What about Iran? 

Now, alongside the well-known Pacific threat, US Navy Carrier Strike Groups have been projecting power in the Middle East in direct response to growing threats and escalations from Iran and its “proxy” forces attacking Israel. What kind of anti-ship-cruise missile threat might Iran have presented to the USS Ford and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Groups when they were in Eastern Mediterranean? 

Iran does produce several long-range cruise missiles of relevance to any possible carrier threat to the US  Navy in the Middle East. While they are primarily a threat for the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz closer to Iranian coastline, it is realistic they could also threaten Israel and portions of the Eastern Mediterranean from Iran or its “proxy” attack locations throughout the region.  The Chinese DF-26 reportedly hits ranges out to 2,000 miles and attacks with some precision, so how comparable are fast-evolving Iranian equivalents? 

Iranian Long-Range Cruise Missiles

An interesting research essay published by Iran Watch lists two new, testing and “possibly deployed” long range Iranian cruise missile, the Soumar and the Hoveizeh. The Soumar missile, which is estimated to operate at a range up to 3,000km, a distance which would hold US Navy Carrier Strike Groups at risk.  The Hoveizeh is potentially more current as it is described as a variant of the Soumar family and capable of hitting targets out to 839miles. Perhaps of greatest significance, the Hoveizeh is cited as a precision-weapon able to use inertial navigation systems to hit targets to within as little as one meter of accuracy. This claim may or may not be true, yet INS technology of this kind does seem to exist. The Hoveizeh also operates in “sea-skimming” mode like many anti-ship cruise missiles in order to fly below the radar aperture and avoid detection while en route to a target. How dangerous are these missiles? 

In order to be able to project power from the ocean over large portions of the Middle East, US Navy Carriers would ideally not want to be further than a few hundred miles off the coast so aircraft can conduct sorties within their operational range, have some dwell time over target and be able to return without refueling. 

“The origin of the Soumar appears to be from the nuclear capable Russian Kh-55. In 2005, Russia acknowledged that 12 Kh-55’s (without nuclear warheads) were illegally sold to Iran in 2001 through a black market counterfeit operation,” a Center for Strategic and International Studies “Missile Threat” essay explains.