Nuclear Deterrence: Russia. Ukraine. China. US.

While the dual Russian and Chinese nuclear threats have been well established in recent years, Chinese nuclear weapons modernization and a Russian threat of nuclear escalation in Ukraine are fast adding new urgency to the global threat equation. 

China is massively accelerating efforts to add new weapons to its nuclear arsenal and is now building ground-silos to house land-launched ICBMs. China is also adding thousands of nuclear warheads to its stockpile. All of this is taking place while Russia is threatening to use its extremely large nuclear stockpile in a war with Ukraine or the West. 

“Today, we face two nuclear capable near peers who have the capability to unilaterally escalate to any level of violence in any domain worldwide with any instrument of national power at any time. And we have never faced a situation like that before in our history,” Commander of US Strategic Command Adm. Charles Richard told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, according to a transcript of his remarks. “I have previously emphasized our need to be able to deter two adversaries at the same time. That need is now an imperative. The strategic security environment is now a three-party nuclear near peer reality,” Richard said. 

Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee Sen. Jack Reed D-RI, addressed the now widely known and concerning possibility that Russia might blend its nuclear weapons into the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. 

“Much has changed since our last hearing in 2021. Russia’s ongoing unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine has shaken the international order that has maintained nucleolus stability for the better part of a century. Vladimir Putin’s behavior has been reckless to a dangerous degree. Just prior to its invasion, Russia conducted a large out of cycle nuclear exercise,” Reed told Pentagon witnesses at a hearing on Nuclear Deterrence, adding ….”and the Kremlin has since made a series of escalatory statements.”Certainly Russia’s behavior and Putin’s move to put nuclear forces on alert raise the very concerning question of just what might happen if there were no countervailing nuclear force to deter him? 

Nuclear Deterrence 

The current situation does seem to bring the importance of nuclear deterrence into focus, given that the prospect of assured nuclear destruction in a retaliatory strike is likely a main reason why Putin has not thus far used nuclear weapons. 

“More than ever a nuclear deterrent, the bedrock of our national defense is being relied upon as we witness the realities of European conflict involving a nuclear armed nation,” Richard said. 

It would seem almost too self evident to point out that the current nuclear threat posed by Russia is likely to impact both short and near-term US nuclear policy, a key question as the Biden Administration prepares to approve a new Nuclear Posture Review.