What Abolitionists Get Wrong About U.S. Nuclear Deterrence

By Peter Huessy, President of Geo-Strategic Analysis, Potomac, Maryland and Warrior Maven, Nuclear Weapons, Senior Analyst 

The Russian threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine has generated more discussion about U.S. nuclear deterrent policy than at any time since the height of the nuclear freeze movement of 1979-83 and the Berlin (1961) and Cuban missile crises (1962).

On the one hand, key supporters of a strong nuclear deterrent policy have concluded that the United States’ deterrence requirements have changed, necessitating careful analysis and even new investments in nuclear arms. On the other hand, supporters of global zero, or nuclear abolition, have re-emphasized their push for a much smaller role for nuclear deterrence on the basis of four arguments about the U.S.-Russian nuclear balance.

First, a number of disarmers have argued that U.S. nuclear deterrence, in general, does not work, as Russia ignored U.S. deterrence capability and invaded Ukraine.

Second, it is further argued that because Russia successfully used nuclear threats to intimidate NATO to not defend Ukraine, the abolition of nuclear weapons, including those held by Russia, is the only means to avoid such nuclear blackmail in the future.

Third, to help spur disarmament, it is argued the United States should unilaterally cut its deployed nuclear forces down to no more than 1000 warheads or an implied 55 percent reduction.

And fourth, given the diminished role nuclear weapons should have in U.S. security policy, the Biden administration should adopt not just a “No First Use” policy, but an explicit policy of “No Use,” of not ever using nuclear weapons.

Following the 9/11 attacks, missile defense critics pushed for the elimination of most missile defense funding, arguing that the Twin Towers in New York were brought down not by missiles but airplanes. However, since then, missile defenses around the world have successfully intercepted thousands of missiles, saving tens of thousands of lives.