by Johnny Franks, Warrior Editorial Fellow
Could the next major threat to global security come from criminal syndicates with access to nuclear materials? Recent charges brought by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York against a Japanese Yakuza leader and affiliates over international trafficking of narcotics and weapons, including surface-to-air missiles, highlight a grave concern regarding the potential for nuclear materials to fall into the hands of non-state actors or rogue regimes capable of developing nuclear weapons. The case signifies that intricate networks facilitate the illegal trade of susceptible materials and technologies, posing tremendous challenges to global security and non-proliferation endeavors.
The production of nuclear weapons requires not only specific radioactive materials, such as uranium or plutonium, but also a sophisticated technological base, extensive financial resources, and scientific expertise. In contrast, the enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade levels requires applying nuclear power to the sources of uranium and using various atomic processing technologies. Plutonium produced in nuclear reactors must be reprocessed, recycled, and converted into weapon-grade plutonium. This way, it requires advanced scientific and technical capabilities, significant infrastructure, and safety measures to prevent accidents or leaks with catastrophic environmental and health consequences.
What sets this apart is that in most cases, the construction of a nuclear weapon will be an engineered explosion, not only needing a precision-engineered mechanism for the release of energy for fission to have much of the material be a critical mass, but further development to effectively design the weapon that in maximum efficiency can reach the critical mass. This includes developing and acquiring detonation mechanisms, ensuring the reliability and safety of the weapon; and, perhaps, minimizing its size for delivery on the means of delivery, whether on the outside surface of a missile or by other means.
What Are the Realistic Risks of Nuclear War?
The case involving the Yakuza, though mainly focused on the narcotics and conventional arms trade, highlights the broader issue on how criminal networks become involved in the trafficking of nuclear materials. The arrest of Takeshi Ebisawa and associates for conspiring to arrange large-scale international narcotics and weapons deals, including the acquisition of surface-to-air missiles intended for factions in unstable nations, reveals one of the imminent dangers these networks pose. Their capacity to conduct complex international transactions for illegal goods serves as a potential pathway for the trafficking of materials required for nuclear weapons if they were instructed to acquire them.
This scenario brings to the fore the necessity of robust international cooperation and vigilance. The efforts of securely monitoring and securing nuclear materials, strict export controls, and efforts to dismantle illicit trafficking networks remain essential milestones in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. Joint international bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), national governments, and law enforcement agencies all play critical roles in this endeavor. The case reaffirms the importance of intelligence and the use of undercover operations in identifying and neutralizing threats posed by the illegal trade in weapons and possibly nuclear materials.
The direct link between the illegal trade and nuclear weapons proliferation may not be directly stated in the public domain concerning the recently reported charges against the Yakuza. Still, the case serves as a stark reminder of the myriad risks accompanying the illegal arms and sensitive material trade. It puts more light on the need for comprehensive strategies to deal with the nuclear proliferation problem and to ensure that the nuclear weapons components are kept out of the wrong hands.
Johnny Franks holds an MA in U.S. Foreign Policy & National Security from American University and a BA in Diplomacy & World Affairs from Occidental College. With a specific interest in geopolitical security and military technology, Johnny has primarily focused his research and analysis on the Russia-Ukraine conflict from 2014 onwards. As part of his MA coursework, Johnny contributed to developing an Arctic defense strategy in partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense
