Beijing’s accelerated production of stealth airpower is rapidly closing the gap with U.S. dominance, utilizing AI-driven manufacturing to field hundreds of advanced fighters across the Pacific.
by Kris Osborn, Warrior maven
In what seems like the flash of an instant or mere blink of an eye, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force is matching if not “surpassing” the U.S. in the realm of 5th-generation stealth airpower. While such a prospect might seem alarming on the surface, particularly given that the U.S. now operates hundreds of F-35s and 187 F-22s, China’s pace of J-20 production is quickly closing this gap.
Public estimates from the U.S. military and open-source analysis suggest that the PLA is now producing as many as 40-to-50 J-20s per-year and already operates an estimated J-20 fleet size of roughly 200 aircraft as of 2024, a number likely to be considerably larger in 2026. Furthermore, China’s well-known civil-military fusion and growing production capacity would seem to indicate the PLA could massively increase its J-20 production rates to much more than 40-to-50 aircraft per year. A recent essay in the South China Morning Post maintains that the PRC is now “doubling” its J-20 production through the use of AI and autonomous manufacturing systems.
“The London-based Royal United Services Institute estimated that the People’s Liberation Army had around 300 J-20s in service by the middle of last year, a figure that could rise to 1,000 by 2030,” the SCMP writes.
Chinese Fighter Jet Explosion
One reason for this is simply that China is now amidst what could be described as a stealth fighter jet explosion; not only is the J-20 being mass-produced, but the PLA is also fast-tracking land-and-ocean variants of its J-35 5th-gen stealth fighter, an aircraft which only existed in the form of a few prototypes several years ago. Added to this equation, China is simultaneously fast-tracking several mysterious 6th-generation aircraft as well, called the J-36 and J-50.
“Mass” in War
Ultimately its seems any ability for a 5th or 6th-generation to prevail in combat depends upon an interwoven mixture of variables such as pilot ability and pure technological parameters such as radar range and fidelity, targeting precision, sensor effectiveness and computing. Should one aircraft be positioned to “see” and “destroy” an enemy from ranges where it cannot itself be seen, a single fighter jet could destroy multiple enemy fighters at one time. This is the case with the F-35, as service wargames have shown that the aircraft can “see” and defeat groups of 4th-generation fighters from stand-off ranges using its long-range sensing and weaponry.
Nonetheless, despite the margin of difference a single superior aircraft could create in modern war, there is still great value in any ability to “mass” 5th-generation air power across an expanded formation or air combat envelope. Essentially, a force with more sheer volume of 5th-generation stealth aircraft would provide a massive tactical advantage, even if its individual aircraft were not superior to the adversary. For example, even if a single J-20 would not prevail in a direct engagement with an F-35, there is still great tactical value associated with any ability to “mass” a large force.
Long Way to Go
Overall, however, China has a long-way to go before it can “mass” a 5th-generation force able to rival a combined force of 5th-gen jets composed of the U.S. and its key allies such as Japan, South Korea or Australia. After making a massive 5th-generation F-35 “buy” years ago, Japan operates a fast-growing fleet of F-35s and South Korea also regularly supports theater sustainment packages, training exercises and joint, multi-national F-35 operations. U.S. and allied F-35s are being built quickly as well, so it could be several years before the PLA AF J-20s could truly out-number an allied force of 5th-generation aircraft.
Perhaps an even greater element of China’s 5th-gen deficit pertains to its lack of ocean-launched 5th-generation capacity. The J-20, while a formidable threat, is purely land-launched and potentially ill equipped to perform forward-positioned ocean-launched 5th-generation air attack far from its shores. The PLA AF does not have an F-35B equivalent and is only just now starting to produce its J-35 ocean-launched stealth fighter jet designed to rival the U.S. Navy’s F-35C.
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 1945. Osborn is also President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University