China's fleet now surpasses the US in size, deploying advanced warships and hypersonic missiles, fueling Pentagon concerns about emerging qualitative parity.
By Kris Osborn, Warrior
Ten years ago many Pentagon experts stated that by 2020, the Chinese Navy would be larger in sheer size than the U.S. Navy, a prediction which has indeed become true. Today’s People’s Liberation Army - Navy is larger in terms of pure fleet size than the U.S. Navy, something which naturally raises the key question as to whether China does now, in fact, have a superior Navy.
Catching and passing the U.S. Navy in terms of sheer size has happened quickly, and the gap is quickly growing larger. As of the end of 2024, the U.S. Navy operated roughly 290 ships, whereas China operates 370; estimates project that China will operate as many as 435 ships by 2030, given the pace at which they are adding new warships. China is well known for its shipbuilding capacity and often-discussed civil-military fusion enabling rapid industrial construction of warships.
Several years ago, prominent house republican Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va), told Warrior that China does not only have “quantity” in terms of Naval capability but also now has “quality.” This appears to be increasingly true as the PLA-N builds its fourth aircraft carrier, adds new quasi-stealthy Type 055 destroyers and accelerates the arrival of its new Type 076 amphibious assault ships. These warships are increasingly armed with advanced surface to air, surface-to-surface and surface-to-land weapons capable of precisely targeting U.S. assets from long ranges. For instance, the PLA-N Type 055 Destroyer has test fired the YJ-21 hypersonic missile capable of traveling several thousand miles faster than Mach 5. This means that not only does the PLA-N now have greater numbers of warships but also, as Wittman indicated several years ago, it has much improved quality. It may not be known if China’s warships are comparable in warfighting prowess compared with the U.S. Navy, yet there appears to be enough information for the Pentagon to take the PLA-N threat very seriously. The hypersonic missile gap between the U.S. and China is closing, however, as U.S. Navy Zumwalt destroyers will be armed with hypersonic Conventional Prompt Strike weapons in 2026.
Air & Undersea Deficit
Despite the growing threat of China’s surface naval fleet, the PLA-N is now operating at a substantial deficit when it comes to sea-launched air power. The PLA-N is just now introducing the J-35 5th-generation stealth carrier-launched fighter as operational in very small numbers, yet the U.S. operates hundreds of F-35Cs and F-35Bs. A US Navy America-class amphibious assault ship, for example, can deploy with as many as 20 F-35Bs and a single U.S. carrier can launch up to 90 F-35Cs if fully maxed out with 5th-gen aircraft. This means China would be unable to launch a 5th-generation stealth air attack from the ocean. Not only does the PLA-N have vastly fewer carrier-launched stealth jets but also has no F-35B equivalent; The F-35B can of course vertically take off and land on an amphibious warship with a short take-off-and-landing, whereas China has no such known capability.
Therefore, in any kind of a substantial Naval engagement, China would be ill equipped to match the U.S. Navy in the air, something which places it at a huge tactical disadvantage. Should PLA-N warships be roughly equivalent in warfighting capability with U.S. surface warships, it would matter less in a large-scale engagement given the extent to which the U.S. Navy would operate with air superiority. An ability to control the skies and keep Chinese warships at risk from the air would offset or in effect “cancel” any surface warfare advantage or “match” the PLA-N may have against the U.S. Navy.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University