Beijing's move to export stealth fighters to Pakistan signals a bold challenge to F-35 dominance, aiming to forge a massive, multi-national network of fifth-generation airpower.
By Kris Osborn, Warrior
As China’s 5th-gen, stealthy carrier-launched J-35 surges into the operational sphere, new reports indicate the People’s Liberation Army - Air Force may be accelerating its ambition to become a dominant global airpower by “exporting” the aircraft.
If accurate, China’s reported decision to “export” stealth and sell 40 export variants of its J-35AE to Pakistan could represent early PLA efforts to generate a global, F-35-like multi-national network of 5th-generation stealth aircraft. The U.S. built F-35 is now well-known for arming at least 18 countries throughout Europe and Asia, and projections indicate there will be as many as 600 F-35s on the European continent by 2030. Maritime-focused F-35Bs are also greatly expanding, as both the U.K. and Japan now operate impactful fleets of F-35Bs, something which further expands U.S.-allied 5th-generation power projection.
Does China have the ambition to match or exceed this kind of multi-national, allied global 5th-generation force? It would appear that way, and these kinds of Chinese long-term ambitions have been well documented over the course of many years in the Pentagon’s annual China report. Previous thinking had been that the PRC plans to be a dominant global military power by its centennial in 2049, however more recent consensus suggests that timeline may have moved up many years earlier.
J-35 vs F-35 Worldwide
An ability to marshall a large-scale, allied land and ocean-launched force of 5th-generation stealth, should it come to fruition, would present a serious rival to the F-35s global dominance. However, it will take many years to potentially close this gap, given that hundreds of F-35s are now operational across the globe, and more are being built. The PLA AF does appear to be quickly growing a large 300-plus aircraft fleet of land-launched J-20s, but prior to the arrival of the F-35, China did not have an ocean-launched 5th-generation capability. Closing this deficit, which can happen over time given China’s manufacturing capacity, could greatly erode the current U.S. Air Force advantage in the Pacific theater.
At the same time, it seems unlikely the PRC will be able to generate anything close to a comparable F-35-like multi-national network, as there simply do not appear to be enough countries interested and willing at this point. This could change, however, and it's conceivable China could expand its global alliances and seek to increase the number of PRC-friendly countries interested in acquiring the J-35. The list of possible J-35 partner nations does seem quite thin at the moment, yet a J-35-armed Pakistan could put Chinese-aligned stealth power projection within range of much of the Middle East, something of potential concern to the U.S. and its allies. Pakistan not only borders Iran but also has 658 miles of coastline along the Arabian Sea, so a maritime-capable Pakistani J-35 could introduce a 5th-gen stealth air threat directly into the Middle East.
Pakistani Navy?
Pakistan does operate a Naval force consisting of a small number of submarines, corvettes, frigates and small boats, yet none of them seem capable of launching a 5th-generation J-35 stealth aircraft from the ocean. The J-35 was initially conceived of as a carrier-launched maritime 5th-generation aircraft, yet it appears the PLA AF has copied the U.S. strategy of engineer land and “sea” launched 5th-generation variants. The PLA does now operate a land-launched J-35A variant of its aircraft, so it is likely that is the aircraft which will be sold to Pakistan. At the moment, Israel’s F-35I Adir appears to be the only 5th-generation stealth aircraft in the Middle East, yet a Pakistani J-35 with a 1,000-mile or more range could potentially rival the IDF in the region in the event of conflict. A 5th-generation-capable Pakistan does make strategic sense for China, given its growing emphasis upon exert influence across the globe. For example, China is building a large military base right near a U.S. military facility in Djibouti, Africa on the Western part of the continent closely bordering the Middle East, and the PRC has for years been seeking to expand its growing economic, political and military influence in the region.
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 1945. Osborn is also President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University--