China's low-cost YKJ-1000 hypersonic missile, priced at a fraction of U.S. weapons, threatens to destabilize global defenses and enable mass attacks.
by Kris Osborn, Warrior
The tactical advantage great-power countries have in the realm of hypersonics may quickly erode, now that the People’s Liberation Army has unveiled an inexpensive, yet highly lethal hypersonic weapon for possible sale on the international market.
The weapon, called the YKJ-1000, is described as a “cement coated” missile capable of reaching 1,300km and, perhaps of greatest significance, costs only 74,000 pounds … a tiny fraction of the $4 million to $15 million cost per missile for US hypersonic weapons. Its not clear how “capable” this inexpensive missile is, yet details of its cost and performance are cited in an interesting essay in “The Independent” which says that “explosive separation nuts have been replaced by electric ones and structural parts that can be die cast.”
It would therefore appear that the new low-cost Chinese-built hypersonic weapon could be easily manufactured at scale and exported to nations adversarial to the U.S. and its allies. The threat, therefore, would seem quite significant given that many defenses against hypersonic weapons are still very much in developmental stages. It would be reasonable to assume that U.S. and allied targets are, today, vulnerable to hypersonic strikes to a degree. This inexpensive weapon in particular, could be acquired quickly in large numbers, something which introduces the prospect of a hypersonic missile “salvo” or “bolt out of the blue” attack. A large salvo of incoming hypersonic missiles would without question present new threat dimensions to U.S. missile defenses.
The “cost curve” dynamic to this equation seems particularly significant, should nations be able to quickly acquire a large arsenal of these weapons for much smaller amounts of money. This makes the threat of a large scale hypersonic attack much more realistic and “achievable” for hostile nations inclined to threaten the U.S.
The primary deterrent against a “bolt out of the blue” kind of salvo, something which would be especially pressing in the event of a hypersonic attack, is the promise of retaliatory or countervailing offensive strike capability. The guarantee of a massive destructive retaliation is really the only deterrent against an essentially indefensible salvo of attacks. This is true when it comes to nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and hypersonics as well. The U.S. is now deploying hypersonic missiles such as the mobile, ground-fired Long Range Hypersonic Weapon and expects to fire the Conventional Prompt Strike naval hypersonic weapon from Zumwalt destroyers by as soon as 2026.
Threat equation
Should large numbers of these YKJ-1000s become available to countries such as Iran, North Korea or even groups such as the Yemeni Houthis, new threats could quickly be presented to U.S. and allied interests. It may not be clear just how “precise” the YKJ-1000 is, or what kinds of guidance systems or explosives it might carry, yet a “salvo” or large volume of incoming hypersonics blanketing an area would without question present unprecedented threats to Israel, U.S. ships in the Red Sea and key U.S. allies in the Pacific such as Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.
Hypersonic Defenses
The threat of this new weapon naturally introduces questions related to the maturity and effectiveness of various hypersonic defenses. The Pentagon is making rapid progress with several key programs, to include the promising Glide Phase Interceptor program and a satellite networking and surveillance defense system called Hypersonic Ballistic Missile Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS).
However, when Glide Phase Interceptor and HBTSS come to fruition, they may experience some “cost-curve” limitations given that advanced “interceptors” of hypersonic weapons are likely extremely expensive. Furthermore, it is unclear how effective a series of individual interceptors might be against a “salvo” of hypersonic projectiles fired to blanket an area with missiles. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the U.S. were exploring various kinds of less-expensive defenses against hypersonic weapons to include EW, High-Powered Microwave or laser interceptors.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.