Hypersonic weapons could create a fast, impenetrable "bubble," blocking U.S. intervention and enabling a swift, irreversible Chinese takeover of Taiwan.
By Kris Osborn, Warrior
“Fait Accompli” is the term often used by the Pentagon’s annual China report to describe a potential People’s Liberation Army strategy to annex the island of Taiwan so quickly and effectively that it would simply become too costly in lives, dollars and consequences to “extract” an embedded PRC force. In this scenario, a Chinese occupied Taiwan would become a “fait accompli” and exist in perpetuity as a new “status quo.”
A contingency such as this one raises the pressing tactical question as to just “how” the PLA might succeed in taking over Taiwan faster than a US-allied force can intervene. The idea would be to create a situation wherein stopping a Chinese occupation would involve a massive, heavy mechanized campaign to “extricate” a Chinese force from the island.
Rapid Chinese Attack
Is a rapid surprise Chinese takeover a realistic prospect? How might this be accomplished? Certainly a large-scale amphibious assault build up would be easily seen by satellites and forward positioned F-35-armed U.S. Navy carriers and amphibs would likely be able to respond in time. It would also be safe to assume that the U.S. Navy would be operating a significant attack submarine force capable of attacking or “stopping” a PLA Navy invasion.
It seems there may only be a few contingencies in which the PLA might be able to “annex” Taiwan faster than the U.S., Japan or South Korea could respond. One simply could be that U.S. Navy warships, F-35s and submarines might not be sufficiently forward positioned to close in on an attacking PLA Navy force transiting the 100 mile Taiwan strait to take-over the island. This seems extremely unlikely, given how consistently the U.S. Navy maintains forward presence in the region.
Blockade
The other possibility could be that China uses its advantage in hypersonic weapons to “deny” access to forces seeking to intervene and defend Taiwan. A salvo of ballistic missiles, followed by warships and aircraft armed with hypersonic weapons, could seek to “blockade” U.S. forces aiming quickly defend Taiwan. The idea of a protective hypersonic “bubble” would need to rely on the current possibility that indeed the PLA is ahead of the US military in the realm of hypersonics, something which could hold U.S. warships and aircraft at risk at great ranges with unprecedented speed. This might prove effective if the U.S. was without comparable hypersonic weapons itself or in possession of any workable defenses against them.
The US Navy is on track to arm its Zumwalt-class destroyers with hypersonic Conventional Prompt Strike weapons by 2026, however the PLA Navy appears to be much further along. Within the last several years, the PLA-Navy has successfully fired the YJ-20 deck-launched hypersonic missile from its Type 055 destroyer. Even more recently, the PLA Air Force has armed its H-6K bomber with a YJ-21 air-launched hypersonic weapon. Should the PRC operate hypersonic weapons of this kind in the absence of a U.S. equivalent or hypersonics defenses, it seems possible that forces intervening to protect Taiwan could potentially be “denied” access to the area it would need to operate in to defend Taiwan.
However, any potential Chinese advantage in the realm of hypersonics is eroding quickly in several key respects; the Pentagon is making rapid progress with a number of soon-to-be operational hypersonic weapons such as the Army’s Long Range Hypersonic Weapon, the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike and the Air Force’s MAKO air-launched hypersonic weapon. The LRHW and CPS are both expected to deploy in 2026 if not sooner, and the Pentagon is making great progress with several hypersonic defensive systems such as Glide Phase Interceptor and Hypersonic Ballistic Tracking Space System.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University