Reports suggest China aids Iran's missile program. Pentagon concerns rise as Iran rebuilds, potentially sparking U.S.-China tensions.
By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven
Multiple news outlets and a prestigious think tank are now reporting that indeed the Chinese “are” helping Iran re-constitute its destroyed missile program, a development which if true is likely of great concern to the Pentagon.
“Western media reported that China has sent multiple shipments of missile fuel precursors to Iran since the start of the war,” according to the Institute for the Study of War. This possibility emerges amid reports that Iran is having some success “digging” out its underground missile bunkers and “returning them to operation.” While this potential development is doubtless an area of substantial concern regarding Operation Epic Fury, the Institute for the Study of War is careful to point out that extracting and re-establishing launchers and missiles by itself does not instantly translate into capability.
“Iran may be re-establishing access to their launchers hours after strikes, but these launchers are components of a larger system that has been degraded. Reported fear and lack of coordination across some Iranian forces means that medium-range missile systems are still functioning sub-optimally,” the ISW essay states.
Launching missiles is part of a comprehensive, multi-faceted process which relies upon support elements as well as weaponry itself, the ISW posits, pointing out that the U.S.-Israeli air attack campaign has targeted both combat and combat support elements to include research and industrial facilities. There is little uncertainty that Iran’s integrated missile attack capacity has been severely degraded, yet the IRGC is believed to retain an operational drone and missile attack capability.
Chinese Motive?
If the Chinese are, in fact, supporting Iranian weapons re-building, such actions could greatly intensify U.S.-China tensions, sentiments which have been escalating in recent years due Chinese threats to Taiwan and the growing U.S. military footprint in the Pacific. The Chinese could be incentivized to weaken or complicate the U.S. application of military power for the purpose of elevating the PRC as a dominant global power, or the Chinese motivation could be driven by pure economics. It is well known that China relies heavily upon oil from the Strait of Hormuz, and there has now been extensive reporting that the PRC has been massively involved in the creation of the current two-week ceasefire. Chinese officials have been communicating with Pakistani and U.S. officials in an effort to diffuse further escalation and essentially “pause” or “stop” the Pentagon’s planned massive escalation in attacks. The Chinese may simply wish to ensure their supply of oil is not further obstructed by ongoing combat.
Long-term Iran Threat
Perhaps of greatest concern, the prospect of Chinese involvement greatly impacts the “long-term” threat equation, as it could massively accelerate Iran’s ability to rebuild its arsenal in coming years. This possibility pertains to a larger question regarding Iran’s long-term “sensibility” or approach to Israel and the West. Should remnants of the collapsed regime, likely consisting of hard-line elements of the IRGC, perpetuate the “death to America” stance which has been in place with Iran for decades, then future Iranian leaders are likely to rebuild with “hostile” intent. Iran’s missile capabilities may have been set back years, however should hardline anti-American and anti-Israel Iranian leaders remain in place, the long-term threat could become equally if not more severe than the recent threat was. It's unlikely that remnants of the destroyed regime would have a “change of heart” and somehow wish to reconcile with the West, so rebuilding with Chinese help unequivocally amplifies the long-term threat.
The even bigger question relates to U.S.-China relations; should Chinese support for Iran be more formally or officially confirmed, it may create a precarious situation between Washington and Beijing. What kind of escalation or complications between the U.S. and China could this generate? That remains unanswered, and it seems unlikely that the PRC will visibly formalize any kind of major, long-term military support to Iran, particularly if their oil supply remains stable.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University