Massive Air Threat: Will China Sell its J-20 Mighty Dragon to Iran?

by Kris Osborn, Warrior

A Jordanian-based think tank called the WANA Institute published a colorful photograph of a Chinese military attache “gifting” a small-scale J-20 replica to the Commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Air Force, an image likely to generate attention from both Israel and the Pentagon. 

The photo raises a clear, simple question presenting substantial implications …. Is the People’s Liberation Army Air Force going to “sell” the J-20 to Iran?  If so, what might that mean for Israel and the U.S.?  A question such as this is likely nuanced and filled with many variables, many of which may be difficult to discern or “answer,” yet the threat of a J-20-armed Iran seems quite serious for both the U.S. and Israel. 

F-35 vs J-20 in Middle East? 

Volumes of speculative analysis have been written about how a PLA AF J-20 might perform against an F-35, yet most of it has been focused on the Pacific theater and a potential confrontation between the U.S. and China.  However, the prospect of a J-20 armed Iran introduces the possibility of an air-war between Iran and the Israeli Defense Forces. This would be something quite new and different from an expected U.S.-China air match up. The IDF’s custom engineered F-35i Adir has had success tracking and destroying Iran’s Russian-built air defenses and intercepting Iranian drones and missiles in the air.  Should Iran fly J-20s, however, this equation could change substantially given that Iran does not have any 5th-generation stealth air power.  The J-20 could therefore bring 5th-generation stealth, computing, weapons and payload capacity to Iran, making their Air Force much better positioned to challenge the IDF’s F-35i Adir. 

Iranian J-20 attack

However, for a J-20 armed Iran to be impactful in any way, it seems the country would likely need a sizable “force” of J-20s and not merely a few aircraft. It is not clear Iran would have the budget to acquire an impactful number of J-20s, despite the alarming pace at which China appears to be building them.  There are other variables as well, particularly given the many unanswered questions about the J-20’s sensing, computing, targeting and weaponry. The J-20 is slightly larger and arguably “less stealthy” than an F-35, yet it can operate in a bomb-truck kind of capacity and take-off with a very large payload.  The J-20 can take off with 27,988 pounds of internal and external weaponry, whereas a full “beast-mode” F-35 can carry 18,000 pounds of ordnance. This bomb-truck ability could factor heavily if Iranian J-20s were able to establish air superiority in any  capacity, yet heavy weaponry would certainly make the aircraft less stealthy and agile. The true measure of whether a J-20 can rival US F-35s and F-22 likely pertains to less easily discernible factors such as mission systems, sensor fidelity and resolution, computing and weapons range and fire control.For instance, the U.S. F-35 has shown in wargames that it can see groups of enemy fighters from stand-off ranges, which is undetectable, and destroy targets without being seen. Do J-20 sensors have a similar kind of overmatch? These kinds of questions would determine the jet’s true performance or superiority. The J-20 is listed as being capable of hitting Mach 2.0, speeds faster than a Mach 1.6 F-35 yet slower than an F-22, which can hit speeds of Mach 2.25.

IDF Defends J-20

Israel has well-established defenses against Iranian ballistic missiles and drones with interceptor systems such as Iron Dome, yet the possibility of an Iranian attack with 5th-generation stealth air power measurably changes the threat equation for the IDF. Should Iran somehow manage to launch several J-20s into striking range in the air above Israel, there would likely be a much wider range of risks or ways in which Iran could hold Israel at risk.  Iran is not far from Israel, so J-20s launching from Western Iran would have little difficulty reaching Israeli airspace with sufficient dwell time to attack without needing aerial tankers to refuel. Israel of course operates air defenses likely to “train” against 5th-generation threats, yet the IDF has likely not had to actually “counter” an attack from a 5th-gen equipped adversary. 

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University