China's J-20 production surges, potentially dwarfing the F-35 fleet. Uncover how this rapidly growing force might reshape air dominance.
by Kris Osborn, Warrior
The U.S. Navy and Air Force now operate hundreds of F-35s, and they continue to prove combat worthy and exceedingly deployable. Not only can U.S. Navy carriers travel with as many as 70 F-35Cs if needed, but its amphibious assault ships can themselves deploy with up to 20 F-35Bs. The U.S. Air Force now operates hundreds of F-35As and they are increasingly forward deployed at strategic allied locations throughout the world.
The allied equation with the F-35 is equally relevant, as it amounts to nothing short of an F-35 “explosion” across the European continent. Not only did Japan make a huge, multi-billion dollar F-35 buy in recent years, but Lockheed developers estimate there to be as many as 600 F-35s on the European continent by 2030. In terms of pure “mass,” this is an extremely substantial number, particularly if the F-35 is able to sustain a tactical air combat advantage in terms of networking, sensing and weaponry. As for the J-20, estimates can vary, yet large numbers of public media reports estimate China’s J-20 fleet as roughly 300 and growing fast.
5th-Generation “Mass”
There is little question that any kind of great-power confrontation would require “mass” when it comes to 5th-generation aircraft, particularly given the expanse of the Pacific or sheer size of Russia and Eastern Europe. Large, dispersed, yet networked formations of F-35s would be needed to “find” and “neutralize” advanced air defenses across a wide geographical envelope.
This strategic reality seems well-recognized by China, as the People’s Liberation Army - Air Force has been “massively” increasing production of its 5th-generation stealth J-20 Mighty Dragon, a still somewhat mysterious aircraft highly praised by Chinese engineers. The platform has undergone a wide range of upgrades and adaptations in recent years, as the PLA AF not only replaced Russian engines with its own, domestically-built WS-15 engine but also appears to have accelerated production and delivery of the aircraft.
The exact extent to which the J-20 can rival an F-35 may remain as somewhat of an open question, as it likely depends upon lesser-known variables such as the speed, range and complexity of J-20 sensing and computing. The J-20’s external configuration does appear stealthy, and the aircraft has two smaller, forward positioned canard for added lift and stability, yet the aircraft is not as fast as a U.S. F-22. With speeds listed at Mach 2.0, the J-20 would appear to be faster than an F-35’s Mach 1.6 speed, yet slower than an F-22 at Mach 2.25.
J-20 AESA Radar
As a slightly larger aircraft, the J-20 can also operate in a bomb-truck type of capacity. The J-20 does have a large nose-radome, something which researchers have suggested houses larger numbers of long-range transmit/receive (T/R) nodules. There is a well known direct correlation between the “range” of an AESA Radar and the sheer number of its T/R modules. Should greater numbers of T/R modules be successfully and efficiently packaged into the J-20s AESA Radar, the aircraft could operate with a longer “detection” range when compared with an F-35. This would suggest that the PLA may have envisioned its J-20 as a “counter-interventionist” long-range detection platform able to form a defensive perimeter around the Chinese coastline. Accomplishing this, however, would require a large number of J-20 aircraft, and they would arguably need to rival the F-35 in terms of sheer numbers and sensor-detection targeting range. Even if a J-20 could conceivably “detect” or “see” an F-35, that does not mean it can “hit” an F-35 at stand-off ranges, given the range, targeting technology and sensor fidelity built into the F-35. Also, should the J-20 be unable to compete with a US F-35 when it comes to sensor range, targeting precision and multi-role air dominance, then having larger numbers of the aircraft might not necessarily make as much of a difference.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.