By Kris Osborn, Warrior

The great “mystery” of the Ukraine war has for several years been related to the somewhat surprising fact that neither Russia or Ukraine has been able to achieve air superiority. This was particularly true in the opening months of the war, as many thought the large discrepancy in available fighter jets would quickly give Russia the advantage. However, despite the massive numerical advantage in fleet size, the Russian Air Force proved unable to secure air supremacy. Russia is known to operate hundreds of fighter jets, to include high-speed Su-27s, MiG-29s, Su-35s, Su-34s and even a small number of 5th-gen Su-57s. 

Russian & Ukrainian Air Defenses

Over the course of the last few years, the reasons for the lack of air superiority have become more clear, as they seem to relate to the effectiveness of Russian and Ukrainian air defenses. The absence of 5th-generation aircraft  likely to perform better than existing fighter jets now flying over Ukraine is likely a contributing factor as well, yet the overwhelming reality seems to relate to the effectiveness of NATO-provided National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System (NASAMS).  While there have been some air strikes and continued air war activity, the existence of Russian S-400s and S-500s and Ukrainian NASAMS has in effect “shut down” or “denied” the air space to both countries to a large degree. 

The arrival of Western F-16s, while impactful to some extent, did not visibly alter the balance of power in the air. Therefore, it seems unlikely that the possible arrival of JAS 39 Gripen fighters will change this equation in a measurable way.  There has been some media speculation that Sweden might export its Gripen to Ukraine, yet there does not appear to be a confirmation and, according to an interesting essay in the Aviationist, plans to deliver Gripens to Ukraine may be intended for “after” the war. 

Nonetheless, should the Ukrainians receive the most recent upgraded variants of the JAS 39 Gripen, air power could slightly sway in Ukraine’s favor. The JAS 39 Gripen is considered a 4th-generation “plus” aircraft, meaning it has received many upgrades making the latest variants more lethal and survivable. It does have upgraded electronics and is capable of hitting high speeds of Mach 2. However, the Saab Gripen is by no means 5th Gen. It has a slightly rounded or blended quaisi-stealthy fuselage but clearly lacks the stealth properties sufficient to truly challenge or evade Russian-built air defenses. 

5th-Gen Aircraft 

The untold story related to air superiority in the Ukraine war likely relates to the absence of 5th-gen aircraft. While Russian media reports are known to claim S-400s can detect and destroy stealth aircraft, the claim seems suspect and unverified, particularly given the F-35i’s performance over Iran. Should F-35s ever enter the war in Ukraine or even enforce a no-fly zone, the power calculus in the war could shift dramatically. However, it seems extremely unlikely that F-35s would enter the conflict as it would likely amount to some equivalent of NATO involvement in the war, something which would be difficult to de-escalate. 

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University