Can the U.S. Navy Afford "Not" to Build Trump-class Battleships

By Kris Osborn, Warrior

A preliminary Congressional Budget Office assessment suggests that the highly sought-after Trump-class Battleships could cost as much as $18-to-$22 Billion per ship, an amount which could make the massive warships the most expensive Navy platform ever to be built. 

The USS Ford aircraft carrier wound up costing $13 billion, well beyond initial plans and estimates, yet there is not a clear or decisive way to assess what the first Trump-class ship will ultimately cost as there are far too many yet-to-be-determined variables. Eventual cost will depend upon progress with the industrial base, an ability to solidify long lead items and stabilize a supply chain and the long-term plans for the ship-class. Should the intent be to build 10 or more Trump-class warships, costs per ship will naturally lower and parts and technologies can begin to be acquired and produce “at scale.”  

Lessons from Ford-class Carriers

There are also likely to be USS Ford-like non-recurring engineering and development costs; one of the main reasons for cost growth with the USS Ford related to it being a “first-in-class” ship intended to incorporate a new generation of technologies. The idea, which has not yet proven to be the case with the second and third Ford-class ships, is that there are naturally first-in-class non-recurring engineering and development costs which will not exist with follow-on ships in the same class. However, production delays and overruns have led estimates for both the USS Kennedy and USS Enterprise to approach USS Ford-like $13 billion. It certainly remains possible that prices for future Ford-class carriers will decrease substantially as technological integration, “fixes” and adjustments are made with the Ford-class “follow-on” ships. There certainly have thus far been major ship-building improvements made with the USS Kennedy as “lessons learned” from the USS Ford are incorporated. Not only has the supply chain solidified but HII shipbuilder employed a new “modular” ship-construction method which assembled larger portions of the ship as integrated elements before loading them onto the overall structure as a “module.” The has streamlined efficiency for shipbuilders and will likely improve production and lower costs for the Ford-class as it moves into the future. 

What about Trump-class

Could the lessons learned from the Ford-class carriers inspire shipbuilders to ensure Trump-class costs are contained as much as possible? Seems feasible, yet there is little ambiguity surrounding the anticipated reality that the Trump-class is likely to be the most expensive warship ever built, by large amounts. This is the case for many reasons, the first of which simply being the amount of advanced technologies now planned for the platform such as lasers, hypersonics and next-gen deck-mounted guns. There is also the simple factor of sheer size, as the Trump-class battleships are being planned to be even longer than aircraft carriers. The large size of the ship will be necessary, U.S. Navy leaders and weapons developers have said, to accommodate all of the needed technologies and weapons systems, which will include new kinds of EW, counter-drone weapons, radar and interceptor missiles. There are also likely to be advanced energy-storage and distribution technologies, AI-enabled computing and sophisticated command and control, some of which have been part of the planning process for the Navy’s DDG(X) next-generation destroyer. 

Operational Need

The essence of the question with this new class of ship seems quite clear, and it can be viewed in terms of whether the costs are necessary to meet the urgent operational need for the warships. Will other critical Navy priorities need to be compromised, reduced or delayed to accommodate cost for the Trump-class? Certainly no one will suggest there should be a limitless budget, yet the current global threat equation seems to justify a major Naval expansion in terms of sheer fleet size and technological sophistication.  It is widely known that China already operates a larger Navy than the U.S. Navy is surging production of new carriers, Type 055 stealth destroyers, Type 076 amphibs and smaller, faster “corvette” like coastal attack and defend vessels.  

“Mass” Matters

While the U.S. Navy priority is to ensure that its ships retain a technological “overmatch” or superiority over People’s Liberation Army - Navy warships, something which is seen as an increasingly challenging task, sheer “mass” matters as well. The concept of mass would prove particularly true in the event of a major maritime confrontation with the PLA-N as it would span across a massive theater of operations and require unprecedented amounts of firepower. 

Sea-based missile defense through the possible use of Aegis Combat Systems could also prove critical to regional and global maritime security. Given this, there will also be a need for well-armed, protected and survivable warships to disaggregate or disperse across a wide area formations to support multi-domain networking across a vast, expansive maritime theater of war. Given all this, the operative question may actually be … can the Navy afford “not” to build the Trump-class battleships. 

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University