Uncertain F/A-XX fighter promises unprecedented speed, stealth, and AI sensing. Will it redefine maritime air superiority against evolving threats?
By Kris Osborn, Warrior
It appears that the emerging yet mysterious and still uncertain F/A-XX carrier-launched stealth fighter is headed toward existence and eventual operational life. The jet continues to inspire the imagination, as it may introduce the stealthiest, fastest and most capable maritime fighter the world has ever seen.
It is also conceivable that the program could be cut or cancelled, something which could imperil the Navy’s opportunity to retain maritime warfare superiority. The arrival of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s carrier-launched J-35 and the possibility that a 6th-gen J-36 or J-50 could have a carrier-launched variant seems to indicate that acquiring F/A-XX would be essential for the Navy.
Indeed there have been many technological breakthroughs since the dawn of the now cutting edge stealthy, carrier-launched F-35C, yet some might be inclined to wonder if there are capability advances sufficient to justify a new F/A-XX platform. This seems to be a fair question, given the massive extent to which the F-35C can be continuously upgraded.Block 4 software upgrades, for example, will introduce the next-generation Stormbreaker and AARGM-ER weapons, computing can be continuously upgraded with AI-capable systems and stealth coating and radar absorbent materials can also be improved in coming years. Therefore, is there truly an operational need for an F/A-XX in light of the continued promise of the highly capable F-35C?
While there are certain to be many unknowns when it comes to this question, there do appear to be some potentially paradigm-changing technological advances in recent years which strongly support the argument for an F/A-XX. Perhaps of greatest significance, the F/A-XX would not replace the F-35C but rather fly alongside it for decades into the future. An upgraded F-35 will remain relevant and potentially superior to rival aircraft into the 2070s in many respects, yet there continue to be defining advances in the realm of stealth technology, fighter jet range capability, sensing and targeting fidelity and AI-enabled computing and data processing.
Stealth Breakthroughs
In terms of pure stealth, the available renderings of F/A-XX configurations would seem to indicate that there have been substantial breakthroughs with efforts to reduce radar signature of a fighter jet. It appears possible that an F/A-XX jet could be built to achieve fighter jet-like agility, speed and performance parameters with a fully horizontal, ultra-stealthy bomber-like blended wing-body fuselage configuration. Stealth bombers such as the B-2 and B-21 are regarded as being the stealthiest in existence given their purely horizontal smooth, rounded exterior. The absence of protruding structures, tails and vertical shapes offers ground-based enemy radar “pings” very few contours off of which to “bounce” and generate a return rendering. A B-21, for instance, is expected to appear like a small bird to enemy radar systems.
Fighter jets, while still stealthy, are considered less stealthy than high altitude bombers because they have historically needed fins, tails, sharp angles and other protruding structures to “vector” and aerodynamically achieve air combat agility. However, it appears technological breakthroughs in aerial maneuverability may enable a purely horizontal stealth fighter such as the F-47 or F/A-XX to achieve F-22 and F-35-like air dominance with a much stealthier, bomber-like airframe. In essence, the F/A-XX could have B-21-like stealth capability combined with F-22 speed and aerial maneuverability. This possibility alone, it seems, could be sufficient to justify the need to build an entirely new aircraft.
AI, Sensing, Range
The F-35 was deliberately engineered to accommodate sensing, computing and weapons upgrades with technical standards designed to integrate new technologies as they emerge. This will serve the aircraft well into the future and helps explain why the Pentagon plans to fly the F-35 into the 2070s. However, there could be advances in the realm of AI, sensing, targeting and range sufficient to require a new jet which is yet another generation beyond the F-35. It is possible that, despite the F-35s upgrade potential, there could be limitations on the extent of new mission systems, sensing and AI-enabled computing its hardware could accommodate. It might be necessary to engineer an entirely new aircraft in order to best leverage an entirely new generation of AI, long-range sensing and weapons.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
Next-Gen Stealth
The technological attributes and performance parameters woven into the mysterious yet promising F/A-XX are likely far too numerous to estimate, yet there do appear to be certain key areas of tactical “need” which the platform is likely to address.
It would not be at all surprising if the aircraft pioneered a new generation of maritime “stealth” technology, as it appears as though it may be capable of vectoring at high speeds without needing “tails” or protruding vertical structures. This lowers the radar signature of the aircraft as it presents fewer contours or shapes off of which an electromagnetic “ping” can bounce to deliver a return rendering. The aircraft will also most likely be engineered with new levels of thermal management, meaning the stealth jet will emit much less of a detectable “heat” signature. The closer an aircraft is to a surrounding temperature, the harder it is for infrared or heat seeking technologies to discover.
Beyond stealth, there are other key areas of performance which are equally if not more important, such as speed, sensing, computing, networking and weapons. One critical area relates to radar, meaning its nose radome should contain an ultra-long-range, precise AESA radar with sufficient numbers of well-packaged transmit/receive modules capable of “seeing” threats from stand-off distances. Long-range target detection and targeting ability will prove “critical” to any potential future engagement, yet an advantage of this kind can be greatly fortified by new levels of “speed” and “agility.” A stealth aircraft with unparalleled speed, agility and vectoring ability could, for example, be positioned to prevail in engagements against rival aircraft with longer AESA detection range.
Detection however, is merely one element of an integrated air combat process which requires fire control, computer processing and weapons capability. The greatest margin of difference may pertain to an ability to deploy long-range, hardened, maneuverable and “course correcting” weapons able to adjust course “in flight” to changing target information. The F-35, for example, can now fire its AIM-9X “off boresight,” meaning the weapon can change direction after launch to lock in on or pursue a target behind or to the side of the aircraft. The Air Force Research Laboratory is also making rapid progress with a program known as Golden Horde wherein AI-enabled weapons systems “collaborate” and share information with one another in flight to adapt to fast-changing targeting information. It seems likely the F/A-XX will operate with an ability to fire hardened weapons able to share information with pilots, drones and even other weapons “in flight.” This means the aircraft will be positioned to hold an entirely new set of previously unreachable targets at risk. Perhaps most of all, networked weapons will enable high-speed, time-critical adjustments necessary to stay ahead of or in front of an adversaries decision-making process.
There is also of course the clear question of overall range and reach, something which impacts dwell-time, lethality, refueling and overall scope of attack. The F/A-XX will need to almost double the range of the F-35C, especially in the Pacific given the geographical expanse of the area. Many Pentagon strategists and weapons developers talk about the “tyranny of distance,” meaning the extent to which distances and travel time to potential targets complicates or even precludes targeting possibilities. For instance, the overall range of an F-35C is cited to be roughly 1,300 miles, meaning it will need to launch roughly 500 or 600 miles away from a target to arrive and “attack” without needing refueling. The Japanese mainland is roughly 1,000-miles away from mainland China, and its Southern islands can be 500 miles away from Taiwan, depending upon where they launch from. Perhaps most of all, an ability to project maritime attack power to the maximum extent from , and reduce risk to aircraft carriers from Chinese “carrier killer” missiles such as the DF-26. An ability to sustain attacks from further distances with a jet able to travel 2,000 miles would greatly improve lethality and survivability for the US Navy.
Tryanny of Distance
“Tryanny of Distance” is the often used phrase to describe the tactical and strategic challenges associated with potential maritime warfare in the Pacific theater. An ability to exact a combat impact depends almost entirely upon the ability to essentially “get there,” and have the sensing, weapons and attack range necessary to deliver “effects” upon an enemy. This can apply to the combat radius of a land or sea-launched fighter, the detection range of AESA radar or the distances at which precision-guided weapons can travel to a target.
Therefore, the prospect of war in the Pacific could well be described as a “tactical predicament,” meaning there are great survivability, lethality and networking challenges associated with simply “reaching an enemy.” This is likely why Pentagon officials have indicated that indeed the F-47 will operate with nearly twice the range of an F-35 and be capable of hitting overall distances of 2,000 miles. A range of this kind would, it seems, be the bare minimum for what could be required of the F/A-XX, as the sea-launched stealth fighter will need to operate at safe standoff distances yet still function with the dwell time and mission scope necessary to support a Pacific theater air-attack campaign.
Pacific Expanse
Although Taiwan is merely 100 miles off the coast of mainland China, the entire first island chain is hundreds if not thousands of miles apart from one another. Central Japan is roughly 1,056 miles from Shanghai, China and Manila in the Philippines is 1,147 miles from Shanghai. However, the distance from the Southern-most Japanese islands can be merely a few hundred miles from Taiwan or mainland China, a scenario which could potentially enable land-based attack upon PRC coastal or maritime targets.
Regardless, a simple look at a map of the Pacific seems to indicate that the F/A-XX would be well served to operate with a range of at least 2,000 nautical miles. The operative question then becomes whether this can be accomplished with heavy non-stealthy external fuel tanks likely to compromise speed and agility and create drag. Perhaps the aircraft can be engineered with a more fuel-efficient engine? Perhaps composite materials can lower the weight to support longer flight times?
China Carrier-Killer Missiles
The largest tactical reality pertains to questions related to China’s “carrier-killer” anti-ship missiles, such as the DF-26, capable of targeting and destroying aircraft carriers at ranges out to 2,000 miles. This means an ocean launched F/A-XX would need to travel up to 2,000 miles to reach mainland China to launch from beyond the range of a DF-26 without needing a non-stealthy aerial refueler likely to give away its location. At the same time, layered ship defenses using new generations of weapons such as EW weapons able to “jam” a guidance system of a DF-26 or laser able to incinerate it, might enable carriers to operate and project power much closer than 2,000 miles of the Chinese coast.
The F/A-XX will need mission “dwell time” as well, meaning it will likely need to spend time over, near or within quick striking range of targets for extended periods of time. During the course of a mission, targets could move or reposition, new intelligence could re-direct attack operations or there may simply be a large number of targets which need to be hit. These variables would suggest that an F/A-XX would need more substantial range than the roughly 1,300 mile range of the F-35C.
There is a clear networking and command and control element of this as well, meaning a forward positioned F/A-XX operating up to 2,000 miles away from its host carrier will almost certainly be controlling drones from the cockpit. With these longer ranges, drones can be directed from a 6th-gen stealth aircraft operating at beyond-line-of-sight ranges and bring over-the-horizon networking, targeting and sensing to a Carrier Strike Group.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.