How Ukrainian NASAMS Air Defenses Are Destroying Russia’s Air Attack

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

With Western F-16s on the way, there is much focus upon what is arguably the largest mystery of the Ukraine war….. Russia’s inability to establish air superiority despite its overwhelming numerical advantage in fighter aircraft.  Globalfirepower.com 2023 assessments reports that Russia operates 773 fighter aircraft as compared to Ukraine’s 69 … so why is there no air superiority? There are likely many variables contributing to this, to include “risk averse” Russian pilots, Ukrainian resolve and tenacity, poor Russian targeting and command and control and…perhaps most of all … effective air defenses. 

Existing advanced Russian and Ukrainian air defenses appear to be largely responsible for why there is no established air superiority in the Ukraine fight, something somewhat surprising given Russia’s massive numerical advantage with fighter jets.

This inability of each country to achieve air superiority is likely why there is so much decisive combat activity taking place on the ground with weapons such as rockets, missiles, artillery and armored vehicles. Speaking about the absence of air superiority, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told reporters there are many ways to control the air space in conflict, as it can be done from both the air and the ground. Milley and other Pentagon decision-makers have been clear that Western-provided air defenses have massively help Ukraine slow-down or minimize the reach and scale of Russia’s air attack.  This is not likely to change drastically with the arrival of a small number of F-16s, however the arrival of even a small amount of hightly-capable 4th-generation F-16s could push the air supremacy balance in Ukraine’s favor. 

Months ago, Pentagon senior officials were clear that a small amount of advanced air defenses can cover most if not all of Ukrainian airspace, and Ukrainians continue to praise Western-provided air defenses such as the Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) built by Kongsberg and Raytheon. As a mobile, vehicle-mounted and fixed-location weapon, NASAMS have a reported radar detection range of 120km and fire high-speed precision weapons from mobile ground launchers such as the AIM 120D, AMRAAM Extended Range and AIM-9X Sidewinder, according to Konigsberg. 

What if Ukraine had Stealth?  Impossible? 

Ground launched weapons such as precision-guided Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS), land-fired missiles and artillery continue to have a massive impact destroying missile launchers, Russian forces and other critical targets visible by satellite and drone ISR. Russian air defenses however, regularly operate as mobile launchers and can be difficult to track and destroy from the ground, even if their location and movements are tracked by ISR. 

Is perhaps the only hope or opportunity to destroy Russian air defenses from the air would come from stealth bombers like the B-2 or stealth fighter jets like the F-22 and F-35? Clearly 4th-generation aircraft have proven largely incapable of establishing superiority above Russian air defenses, although the upcoming arrival of F-16s may impact this equation to some extent. Stealth aircraft, however, such as a stealth bomber or 5th-generation fighter jet might be able to elude detection sufficient to destroy Russian air defenses.