By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
With Western F-16s on the way, there is much focus upon what is arguably the largest mystery of the Ukraine war….. Russia’s inability to establish air superiority despite its overwhelming numerical advantage in fighter aircraft. Globalfirepower.com 2023 assessments reports that Russia operates 773 fighter aircraft as compared to Ukraine’s 69 … so why is there no air superiority? There are likely many variables contributing to this, to include “risk averse” Russian pilots, Ukrainian resolve and tenacity, poor Russian targeting and command and control and…perhaps most of all … effective air defenses.
Existing advanced Russian and Ukrainian air defenses appear to be largely responsible for why there is no established air superiority in the Ukraine fight, something somewhat surprising given Russia’s massive numerical advantage with fighter jets.
This inability of each country to achieve air superiority is likely why there is so much decisive combat activity taking place on the ground with weapons such as rockets, missiles, artillery and armored vehicles. Speaking about the absence of air superiority, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told reporters there are many ways to control the air space in conflict, as it can be done from both the air and the ground. Milley and other Pentagon decision-makers have been clear that Western-provided air defenses have massively help Ukraine slow-down or minimize the reach and scale of Russia’s air attack. This is not likely to change drastically with the arrival of a small number of F-16s, however the arrival of even a small amount of hightly-capable 4th-generation F-16s could push the air supremacy balance in Ukraine’s favor.
Months ago, Pentagon senior officials were clear that a small amount of advanced air defenses can cover most if not all of Ukrainian airspace, and Ukrainians continue to praise Western-provided air defenses such as the Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) built by Kongsberg and Raytheon. As a mobile, vehicle-mounted and fixed-location weapon, NASAMS have a reported radar detection range of 120km and fire high-speed precision weapons from mobile ground launchers such as the AIM 120D, AMRAAM Extended Range and AIM-9X Sidewinder, according to Konigsberg.
What if Ukraine had Stealth? Impossible?
Ground launched weapons such as precision-guided Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS), land-fired missiles and artillery continue to have a massive impact destroying missile launchers, Russian forces and other critical targets visible by satellite and drone ISR. Russian air defenses however, regularly operate as mobile launchers and can be difficult to track and destroy from the ground, even if their location and movements are tracked by ISR.
Is perhaps the only hope or opportunity to destroy Russian air defenses from the air would come from stealth bombers like the B-2 or stealth fighter jets like the F-22 and F-35? Clearly 4th-generation aircraft have proven largely incapable of establishing superiority above Russian air defenses, although the upcoming arrival of F-16s may impact this equation to some extent. Stealth aircraft, however, such as a stealth bomber or 5th-generation fighter jet might be able to elude detection sufficient to destroy Russian air defenses.
Should Ukraine establish air supremacy, it takes little imagination to recognize how quickly they might prevail.
The problem with getting Ukraine stealth technology is not only related to a risk of major escalation between Russia and NATO, a scenario which could potentially lead Russia to contemplate or launch some kind of nuclear attack, but also a simply question of supply. Stealth technology simply does not exist many places apart from the US, Russia and China and whichever allies the technology is extended to. Japan is in the early stages of prototyping its Mitsubishi F-X, South Korea and Indonesia are building the KAI-KF X stealth fighter and India is reportedly in the early phases of engineering its HAL AMCA stealth jet. Each of these are all allied closely with US interests and also in early stages of development. There simply are not any available operationally ready stealth aircraft apart from Russia’s Su-57, China’s J-20 and J-31 and the US F-22 and F-35. Certainly the Chinese are not going to offer operational J-20s to Russia, and many at the Pentagon are likely relieved China does not appear to be supplying them to Russia.
In the case of the F-35, there are of course many participating countries, however all are closely allied with the US and any delivery of 5th-generation aircraft would be almost certain to provoke Putin in unprecedented ways. The reason for this is simple, the presence of advanced stealth technology in Ukraine might end the war quickly by establishing air superiority. It seems rather apparent that 4th-generation fighter jets flying for both Ukraine and Russia have been unable to achieve air superiority and have reportedly been extremely vulnerable to advanced air defenses.
Could a US-allied F-35 nation offer Ukraine a few F-35s? Seems extremely far-fetched, particularly given the training that would be required, and any country sending an F-35 would have trouble doing so without some kind of US footprint. Therefore, it may be simply impossible for Ukraine to get 5th-generation aircraft of any kind.
For months, the Pentagon had been reluctant to send F-16s, so the prospect of sending allied F-35s from NATO partners could quickly be interpreted as a massive escalation.
Essentially, even if NATO and the US had the “will” to somehow offer stealth attack possibilities to Ukraine, there simply are not available options that would be considered acceptable.
For the sake of possibility, however, it is easy to discern just how decisive any presence of stealth in Ukraine might be for the war. Modern air defenses, particularly Russian-built S-400s and S-500s are now so advanced with range, precision, networking and targeting image fidelity that non-stealthy aircraft simply don’t appear to be able to operate. Month ago, Pentagon leaders were clear that a small amount of advanced modern air defenses are capable of covering the airspace across most if not all of Ukraine. Senior DoD officials have also said Russia has been risk averse when it comes to challenging Ukrainian and NATO-provided air defenses.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
