By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
There is an ongoing question that is varied, complex, shrouded in mystery and uncertain.. and… most of all, of enormous consequence. Does the future of our planet hang in the balance of the survival, health and mental balance of one man? That may sound theatrical or exaggerated, yet Russian President Putin has consistently threatened to use nuclear weapons. Will Putin launch a nuclear war? If he does, the consequences could indeed be extremely serious for modern civilization.
Many experts have maintained Putin is ultimate a “rational” actor with a survival instinct and pronounced interest in maintaining power. One could make the case that Putin’s nuclear “threats” have worked in terms of holding the world hostage and slowing down or decreasing US military aid to Ukraine. At the same time, the West seems to be calling his bluff to a certain extent and sending heavy armor, fighter jets and a consistent stream of weapons and support to Ukraine. However, President Biden and others have been clear that it is critical to avoid “World War III” and the Pentagon has been clear about not wanting to provoke Putin too much.
Certainly part of him knows launching a nuclear attack could quickly lead to the end of his regime and possibly the end of his life. He is likely not suicidal … however, there is a nuance to this which could be of high consequence. Does Putin have cancer? Is he terminally ill? Might this add an element of instability and an “x-factor” to any equation regarding Putin’s temperment and potential willingness to risk the end of civilization?
For months now, there have been reports in the New York Times, Newsweek and other mainstream news publications, as well as direct comments from Ukrainian military sources that Putin may be terminally ill with cancer. At the same time, articles also dismiss the possibility as speculation, or at least raise the question that it is likely not true, simply suggesting there may not be enough solid evidence to support what could be a “rumor.”
Therefore, regardless of whether Putin estimates he might have a possibility to win a tactical or limited nuclear engagement, many believe he simply would not risk his own elimination. Putin is known to be autocratic and cruel, but there is not much speculation that he is suicidal. Launching nuclear weapons would, in effect, amount to a suicidal impulse of some kind from Putin, something which many believe does not exist given his ability to maintain and preserve his power.
However, what about the cancer rumors? It is rumored that Putin may have some kind of cancer, something which might imperil his future and add new dynamics to his decision-making. Such a possibility could possibly inspire a measure of reckless disregard for life from Putin and place Russia’s nuclear arsenal in an extremely precarious position. While Putin might care about his legacy and the extent to which he is regarded as a successful and dominant Russian leader, he might prefer a suicidal, apocalyptic destructive ending to his life and regime to a devastating loss to Ukraine. A loss to Ukraine would leave Russia extremely vulnerable and greatly weakened and even embarrassed. Would this possibility back Putin into a corner such that he decides to launch nuclear weapons with reckless abandon?
Escalate to Win
Russia has already used hypersonic weapons, something which could be perceived as a break beyond a certain threshold, yet any use of nuclear weapons would pass yet another threshold.
Putin and his regime certainly threaten to use nuclear weapons on a regular basis, however this may merely be posturing designed to manipulate and scare NATO into restricting its involvement. Arguably, this “escalate to win” kind of strategy, through which Putin holds the entire world hostage with nuclear threats, was arguably effective for quite some time.
Russia’s nuclear threat, and the belief that it could actually present a realistic and credible danger, may be a key reason why the Pentagon waited so long before sending HIMARS and GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems) rockets to Ukraine. Perhaps Putin’s nuclear posturing is also responsible for why it has taken the Pentagon so long to approve the delivery of Abrams tanks, Bradleys and now F-16 fighter jets.
The arrival of these platforms does pertain to this broader equation about Putin’s potential use of nuclear weapons, because should Putin feel backed into a corner and be facing defeat and the end of his rule and regime, he might well think that a nuclear option would provide his only opportunity to prevail or even survive. He may calculate that NATO and its allies would not respond with nuclear weapons as it would risk the end of civilization and massive escalation. Would NATO and the West simply let a nuclear strike stand without a commensurate or greater nuclear response? Perhaps this could happen out of a pure interest in preserving the earth, as a full nuclear war would clearly place all of human civilization at risk of destruction.
Ultimately, while Putin is already thought to be unpredictable to a certain extent, the arrival of cancer could introduce an unprecedented measure of instability for Putin and definitely place the world at greater risk.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in /lComparative Literature from Columbia University This was originally posted on 19FortyFive.com as part of a syndication agreement to publish their content. You can find more of their content at 19FortyFive.com.
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