By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Machine guns, tanks, airplanes, artillery and barbed wire were all used for the first time during the horribly traumatic, high-casualty trench warfare of World War I. Not surprising that Germany’s initial invasion on the Western Front initially resulted in a statement, as soldiers were tasked with charging enemy trenches over “no-mans-land” where they were exposed, vulnerable and faced with near certain death. British, French and German soldiers literally ran across open areas straight at heavily defended trenches, placing themselves in the direct line of machine gun fire.
The horrors of trench warfare are well documented and serve as a historical reminder of the trauma of ground war, yet despite more than a century of military innovation and technological progress regarding combat weapons, today’s war in Ukraine bears a surprising resemblance to the slow, high-casualty, high-risk combat experienced by French and German armies trying to advance on the Western front.
A century later, there are some clear parallels to the war in Ukraine as soldiers slowly and carefully seek to advance through minefields and heavily defended Russian areas. Being aware that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was coming toward them, Russian forces had time to prepare for and anticipate new waves of Ukrainian attacks.
The comparison to World War I, while of course intended in a “loose” or “broadly defined” way, was made recently at the Pentagon by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley.
“The Russians have had several months to put in a very complex defense in depth, the linear defense in depth. It’s not quite connected trench lines like World War I, but it’s not dissimilar from that, either – with lots of complex minefields, dragons’ teeth, barbed wire, trenches, et cetera. They’ve got a very extensive security zone in depth, and then they’ve got at least two, perhaps even three main defensive belts,” Milley explained, according to a Pentagon transcript of his remarks at the Pentagon.
There is a clear, key reason why this somewhat anachronistic ground-war circumstance has emerged, and that is simply the absence of air superiority. While Ukrainian pilots are being trained on F-16s by Denmark and The Netherlands, Milley stressed that the effectiveness and risks presented by both Russian and Ukrainian air defenses have created a combat circumstance wherein precision-attacks and territorial advances fall largely within the realm of land warfare.
Milley said “control of the airspace” can happen in the air or from the ground, adding that it would take years for Ukrainian F-16s to match Russia’s hundreds of fourth-generation aircraft. Furthermore, he stressed that the effectiveness of air defenses has really impaired Russia’s ability to dominate or exact a huge impact from the air. “The key thing is to focus on air defense, focus on the blocking-and-tackling sort of offensive combined arms maneuver, which is artillery, as both long-range and short-range artillery, and then get in your engineers and your mine-breaching equipment. That’s the kind of stuff they need,” Milley said.
Without an ability to attack or destroy Russian defenses, trenches and armor from the air, Ukrainian forces are left to slowly advance through minefields in high-casualty, high-risk ground war operations.
“The casualties that the Ukrainians are suffering on this offensive are not so much from Russian airpower; they’re from minefields, minefields that are covered with direct fire from anti-tank hunter-killer teams, that sort of thing. So it’s minefields. So the problem to solve is minefields, not the air piece right this minute,” Milley said.
The Ukrainians, Milley explained, recognize this and are taking their time and progressing slowly through highly-lethal minefields, barbed wire and heavily defended areas, all while deliberately holding a large amount of combat-ready reserves on standby until the timing is optimal for a large-scale advance.
While there certainly is cutting-edge technology being employed in Ukraine with upgraded anti-tank missiles, drones, networked surveillance and precision-guided rockets and artillery, the ongoing conflict is nevertheless a slow-moving ground war, Minefields, Milley said, are particularly lethal and problematice for advancing Ukrainian forces.
“This offensive will be slow, it’ll be difficult, and it’ll come at a high cost. This battle continues as the Ukrainians fight through dense minefields and obstacles while a robust Ukrainian reserve force lies in wait to be committed at the optimal time and place of Ukrainian choosing,” Milley explained.
As ground forces come into closer proximity during Ukraine’s offensive, there are also some critical cutting edge technologies which could prove decisive, such as the use of attack drones. It is not surprising that the Ukranians are using Switchblade “loitering” attack drones and also reportedly literally “tying” grenades onto small drones for close-in attack. Without air superiority to any measurable degree, such small drone air attacks could prove quite decisive against “dug-in” Russian soldiers protected by trenches, mines and barbed wire.
There is little question that the passage of time and resulting arrival of precision-guided munitions, drones, AI-enabled networking and weapons have irreversibly changed the character of warfare and driven entirely new conceptions of Combined Arms Maneuver.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master’s Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
