Putin’s Nuclear Threats Aren’t Stopping NATO & US Tanks, Missiles, Air Defenses to Ukraine

by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington D.C.) Russia’s continued nuclear threat is arguably holding the Western world hostage by preventing any kind of more extensive involvement in providing support for Ukraine.

Russia Nuclear Threat

The existence of a nuclear threat may have factored heavily in NATO’s initial decision to avoid setting up a “no-fly” zone, something which may have quickly given the Ukrainians an impactful and decisive advantage. Continued threats and comments regarding a realistic Russian “nuclear” threat, however likely, are likely taken very seriously by the Biden administration and senior leaders at the Pentagon. 

At one point, President Biden was clear that the US goal was to avoid a “World War III.” This makes sense given the very realistic possibility of a Russian nuclear response to a more substantial US or NATO involvement. This would be quite realistic because, in large measure, Russia quite likely simply could not compete with NATO in terms of air power or even conventional military ground forces.

The prospect introduces several key factors to consider such as the possibility that Putin might consider a more limited nuclear strike and seek to avoid catastrophic global destruction. Russia is known to operate a large number of tactical nuclear weapons and has already claimed to demonstrate nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons. Most recently, a CNN report now says Putin is planning to put tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, a development which clearly impacts the threat calculus.

How might the US strategic deterrence posture respond to such a possibility? Some are of the view that a massive nuclear response should be ensured in response to “any” use of nuclear weapons, whereas there would also be a possibility to respond with a limited or tactical nuclear strike. 

A limited nuclear strike, or the threat of a measured nuclear response, seems to be a much less likely Pentagon response, as the assurance of total destruction might prove to be the most effective deterrent.