By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Massive amounts of new rockets and air-defense systems are pouring into Ukraine to build upon success thus far stopping Russian aerial and missile attacks, however air defense needs continue to prove critical and urgently needed given Russia’s deliberate targeting of civilian areas and now … “grain supplies.”
Russia’s war on Ukraine has crippled key elements of the world food economy for months as air attacks have prevented Ukraine from exporting its badly needed supply of grain to key customer countries. Now, not only is Russia deliberately interfering with Ukraine’s grain exports but specifically “targeting” and “attacking” grain supplies.
“Russia took its assault on global food security to a new low, targeting grain supplies with air strikes. That has unleashed dangerous ripple effects in other countries and continents uninvolved in Putin’s campaign of imperial aggression,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters at a Ukraine Contact Group meeting of 50 countries. “So, air defense will continue to be Ukraine’s greatest need, to protect its skies, its civilians and its cities, as well as innocent people far away from the battlefield.”
Therefore, not surprisingly, Austin heavily emphasized NATO and US support providing air defense systems, weapons which have been vital to preventing Russia from achieving air superiority and targeting critical infrastructure and command and control. Long-range Russian missiles, for example, if spotted after launch or in flight by NATO ISR, can in some cases be intercepted and knocked out of the sky by air defense systems. Key buildings such as headquarters and command and control locations, equipment and weapons and force concentrations can all be protected by ground-fired air defenses. Austin made this clear when describing the most recent US support package to Ukraine.
“I want to underscore the importance of the life-saving air defense systems that we have provided together, systems such as the Patriot and HAWK and IRIS-T and NASAMS and Gepard. Now, these air defense capabilities are protecting Ukraine’s forces, its civilians and its critical infrastructure,” Austin said, according to a Pentagon transcript.
For more than a year, many have marveled at Russia’s inability to achieve air superiority, despite its overwhelming numerical advantage in the realm of fighter jets. However, months ago Pentagon officials were clear that Russian pilots were being “risk averse” to a certain extent and avoiding very capable Ukrainian air defenses.
The US-Ukrainian discrepancy in fighter jet numbers is staggering. Global Firepower’s 2022 military assessments list Ukraine as operating 69 fighter aircraft, compared with Russia’s 773, a disparity one might think would lead to immediate air superiority.
Nonetheless, Ukraine’s ability to withstand and even succeed against larger numbers of invading Russian forces would arguably not be possible if Russia did in fact have air superiority.
Russia operates upgraded 4th-generation Su-35 aircraft as well as Su-30s and Su-35s. Both the Su-34s and Su-35s are cited as “fighter aircraft” emerging as recently as 2014. The Su-34 is listed as a “fighter-bomber” with long-range strike capacity and the Su-35 is reported to be a multi-role heavy combat fighter.
Now Western F-16s are arriving, along with heavily reinforced air defense weapons systems, a circumstance which only further challenge’s Russia’s ability to exact some measure of control from the air. Should one country achieve air superiority, it would seem to suggest an end to the war, as advancing ground forces would quickly be destroyed from the air. Therefore, air defenses are an indispensible part of what is giving Ukraine its only chance to fight off and destroy the Russian invaders.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – the Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
