Russia “Revs” Up for Massive Winter Offensive In Eastern & Southern Ukraine

By Johnny Franks, Warrior Editorial Fellow

As the temperature drops and the ground in Ukraine eventually freezes over the coming weeks, according to Insitute for the Study of War (ISW) there is growing speculation that the Russian military will launch a new offensive specifically targeting the eastern and southern regions. The situation is marked by a complex intersection of strategic objectives and environmental challenges.

The Russian military’s primary objective in Eastern Ukraine is twofold: first, to capture the remaining territories of Luhansk Oblast while extending their control westward into the eastern parts of Kharkiv Oblast and the northern regions of Donetsk Oblast; second, to secure complete control over Donetsk Oblast. These efforts are reflective of Russia’s broader strategy to consolidate its influence over the contested Donbas region.

Ukrainian forces, adopting a strategy of active defense, engage in smaller yet strategically significant counterattacks, aimed at maintaining persistent pressure on Russian advancements. This approach seems to be focused on gradually eroding the Russian military’s capabilities, despite Russia’s large advantage in manpower.

The ISW’s analysis indicates a probable shortfall in Russia’s ability to realize significant operational breakthroughs, despite potential intensification of their offensive operations. Factors such as the limited number of Russian military personnel at the frontline, adequate for localized tactical maneuvers but insufficient for substantial operational achievements, and the adverse impact of severe winter conditions on military activities, including the functionality of artillery and drone systems, contribute to this assessment.

Russian military equipment, such as tanks, armored vehicles, and aircraft, are designed to operate in a wide range of climates. However, extremely cold weather can adversely affect their operational efficiency. Issues such as starting and maintaining engines in cold temperatures, ensuring mobility in snow and icy conditions, and managing the performance of electronic systems are significant challenges. The effectiveness of aviation operations can also be hampered by freezing weather, impacting the Russian air force’s ability to provide support to ground troops.

In Ukraine, the Russian military has employed a range of vehicles and aircraft, each with specific roles and capabilities. Among the aircraft, the Russian Air Force has used combat aircraft like the Tu-95, which is known for launching Kh-101 cruise missiles. These missiles have been used in strategic attacks, such as the one on Dnipro in July 2022. However, despite their initial qualitative and quantitative advantages, the Russian Air Force has faced significant challenges, largely due to the effective ground-based anti-aircraft capabilities of the Ukrainian forces.