How a “No-Fly” Zone Over Ukraine Could Impact US, NATO & Russia

By Kris Osborn – President & Editor-In-Chief, Warrior Maven

While discussions about the merits and risks of implementing a “no-fly” zone above Ukraines are likely to be filling the halls at the Pentagon, senior DoD officials are reiterating that US forces will not fight in Ukraine.

Ukraine No-Fly Zone

Any move to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine would of course place the US and NATO on a direct collision course with Russia, a scenario which introduces the possibility of massive escalation into a US-NATO vs Russia great power world war. The risks involved with such a possibility are almost beyond imagination, given the scale, scope and global implications of such a conflict.

However, Russian attacks are killing children and innocent civilians with long-range air and missile strikes are now hitting apartment buildings, residential areas and Ukrainian government buildings, according to multiple media reports. Russian attacks appear to be about to escalate in potentially catastrophic ways and thousands of ordinary Ukrainian citizens are picking up weapons to fight invading Russians with remarkable tenacity.

Is the thought of actually pursuing a no-fly zone getting traction? There are a few interesting dynamics to consider, principally the seemingly significant advantage the US and NATO would likely have in the air. Assuming stealth aircraft could succeed in locating, destroying or eluding Russian air defenses, something which seems realistic, the circumstance in the air would seem to massively favor NATO. 

The question may simply be one of numbers. Russian press reports consistently say that only about 12 5th-generation Su-57 stealth fighters have been built and that there are plans to add about 70 more in coming years. Even if the Su-57 were able to rival the F-35, and there is no real indication that it could, Russian 5th-gen aircraft would be operating at a massive deficit. The US alone operates hundreds of F-35s which, if joined by European counterparts, would seem to be capable of forming multiple expansive, multinational F-35 formations across a wide operational envelope to pursue air superiority. 

Using long-range targeting sensors and precision-guided air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, F-35s might be able to see and destroy large numbers of Russian 4th generation fighter jets at safe standoff distances.

Should air supremacy be achieved, clearly advancing Russian ground forces would be extremely vulnerable and could potentially be disabled or completely eliminated from the air. Is there a US and global will to consider this option and take such an enormous risk? As long as Russia continues to murder children, it seems the possibility at least merits consideration.