Why Putin Will Likely Not Attack NATO

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

Repeated Russian threats of nuclear attack and regular warnings that certain NATO movements in support of Ukraine would prompt a massive attack, have led many to think that Putin’s threats of attacking the West are indeed quite credible.  While known for posturing, threats and escalatory rhetoric for sure, Putin is known for being more talk and less action. However many believe that just several years ago, Putin might have chosen to attack NATO, if one examines the threat landscape and Russian force capabilities prior to its military being decimated by Ukrainian forces. 

Therefore, why has Putin clearly taken steps to avoid a confrontation with NATO, despite his threats? A quick look at force structure, force availability and 5th-generation aircraft in particular across the European continent offers what might be a sensible explanation for why Putin does not want to confront NATO.  Russia, and its massive ground Army, would likely be destroyed quickly from the air. 

The prospect of a massive Russia-NATO war across the European continent has struck fear in the minds of thousands for decades, as it represents what could be thought of as a spirit of the times or “zeitgeist” for decades during the Cold War.

The fear of a Russia-NATO clash has intensified in recent years both prior to and of course since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The concern has been massive for many years, and as far back as seven years ago in 2016, the Rand Corp. published a concerning study suggesting that, given the size and depth of its ground war arsenal, Russia could quickly overrun the Baltics should it choose to invade. The findings of this study prompted discussion about sending more U.S. forces to Eastern Europe to strengthen a deterrence posture.

Could Russia Overrun the Baltics?

The widely read and quoted 2016 Rand Corporation study called “Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank, Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics,” raised concern about NATO’s ability to defend Eastern Europe. The published report, emerging from extensive wargaming, made the determination that the Baltic states would be quickly overrun by Russian forces in the event of any invasion. The study recommended that the Pentagon substantially reinforce its combat presence and forward-deployment activities in the region.

NATO 5th-Generation Advantage

However, this study was published in 2016, years before the arrival of sufficient numbers of F-35s across the European Continent. The current concentration of F-35 power in Northern Europe introduces the possibility that the U.S. and its allies could, if necessary, quickly launch a massive 5th-generation air assault into Russian airspace should that instantly become necessary. Not only does Finland itself share a border with Russia, but the Russian coastline and the Baltic states border the Baltic Sea. This places Russia easily within the combat attack radius of F-35s from Poland, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, and possibly even the UK.