By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior
Numerous reports citing a Russian mil-blogger stating a Russian Su-34 has been shot down by a Ukrainian F-16 point to the emerging significance of F-16s in the ongoing war and also reinforce questions regarding the continued vulnerability of Russian Su-34 aircraft. Certainly the F-16 bring a previously unprecedented air-to-air capability to the Ukrainian force, the country’s missile defense systems and ground-fired air defense weapons have been quite successful in both shooting down Russian aircraft and also denying airspace to Russian fighters by simply making the airspace too dangerous for Russian fighter aircraft to operate.
Therefore, while this F-16 kill may reveal breakthrough possibilities in the ongoing Ukrainian air war, it is relevant to point out that Su-34s have been shot down multiple times throughout the ongoing war. National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), in conjunction with US-provided Patriot missile batteries, have reportedly shot down as many as four Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers, a development of significance for several key reasons. Certainly the shoot downs suggest that larger Su-34 fighter-bomber might be a larger, less maneuverable and therefore more vulnerable target, and NASAMS appear successful with targeting and tracking moving aircraft. However, Ukrainian military sources say Patriots have been used to shoot down some of the Russian Su-34s. Patriot missiles have typically been developed, thought of and used as anti-ballistic missile interceptors, yet an essay last year from the New Voice of Ukraine quotes a Ukrainian military commander saying the Patriot missile shot down Russian aircraft..
“ I would like to note that an aircraft, not a missile, has been shot down by the Patriot system in a real combat zone, and it is in our war, and it is proving itself. This is a MIM-104 missile with a range of up to 155 kilometers. As we can see, if it is a Patriot, it works well against targets such as aircraft,” Ukrainian Armed Forces reserve officer Andriy Kramarov told the New Voice of Ukraine last year.
Patriot missiles have typically been engineered to intercept ballistic missiles flying with a specific parabola-like trajectory, and they have rarely if ever been known to destroy an maneuvering fighter jet flying at altitude parallel to the ground. However, there have been upgrades to Patriot missiles in recent years enabling the system to hit maneuvering cruise missiles, a development which suggests that perhaps software upgrades to the Patriot do now enable the weapon to destroy aircraft. This would depend on which Patriot variants were sent to Ukraine, meaning if they were more modern Patriot variants, they very well could be shooting down aircraft.
New applications of that Patriots radar system have in recent years been showing that the interceptor, which as far back as the Gulf War, has been upgraded to track and destroy maneuvering cruise missiles. The most recent demonstrations have shown that a Patriot can in fact track and destroy “two” maneuvering cruise missiles, although these upgraded variants are unlikely to be deployed in Ukraine.
Multiple reports say several Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers have been shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. The Su-34 operates as a bomber capable of taking off at a max weight of 100,000 pounds, whereas the sleeker, faster Su-27 can only take off with a max weight of 67,000 pounds.
Although a larger aircraft, the Su-34 does resemble the slightly stealthy 4th-generation Russian airframes such as the Su-27 and Su-35. However, the Su-34s empty weight is listed at nearly 50,000 pounds compared with the Su-27s 36,000-pound empty weight. The largest difference is perhaps found in its payload capacity as the Su-34’s maximum take-off weight is just about 100,000 pounds, something which represents an ability to operate with a massive amount of weapons.
Therefore, the Su-34s role as “bomb-truck” to some extent is likely something which makes it more vulnerable, something which is especially true if Ukrainian fired Patriots are operating with upgraded radar systems.
The larger story here is not only that the Patriot system is successful against aircraft but that, despite its overwhelming numerical superiority, the Russian Air Force is still unable to achieve air superiority.
Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
