Escalating WW III Threat? Russia Sends Nuclear Weapons into Belarus

For the first time since the days of the Soviet Union, Russia has now moved tactical nuclear weapons beyond its borders into Belarus, a move which further suggests Putin may in fact be inclined to use them.

NUCLEAR THREAT

In many respects, observers have regarded Putin as somewhat of a “rational” actor inclined to preserve himself and his authoritarian rule in Russia. Therefore, while the world knows Putin never hesitates to “threaten” the use of nuclear weapons, there do appear to be questions as to whether he might actually fire them if backed into a corner. 

Putin does appear to have a survival instinct and somewhat of a Machiavellian ability to remain in power, so he quite likely understands that any use of nuclear weapons could quickly lead to his complete demise.

Meanwhile, powerful tactical nuclear weapons are now “arriving” in Belarus, a provocative and changing dynamic that highlights Russia’s well-known “escalate-to-win” strategy. Russia has long had an arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons and is perceived as being willing to aggressively threaten, posture, and intimidate rivals by adding high numbers of heavy and low-yield nuclear weapons.

Some of the atomic bombs delivered to Belarus were three times more powerful than the atomic bombs the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, according to a story in Reuters. The Reuters article also cited ominous warnings from President Biden on Russia’s resolve to use nuclear weapons, saying “It’s real.”

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Russia’s “escalate to win” strategy was cited as part of the Pentagon’s rationale for adding lower-yield, tactical nuclear weapons to the U.S. arsenal. While some express concern that the addition of low-yield nuclear weapons to the U.S. arsenal could “lower the threshold” to nuclear war and encourage thinking that there may be a possibility for a “winnable” nuclear weapons exchange.