US vs China Undersea War – Will the US Have Enough Attack Submarines?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

Members of Congress are making a push to secure funding for a continued fast-paced, revved up attack submarine construction plan to address the longstanding concern many Pentagon leaders and Combatant Commanders have been trying to counter…… a growing “submarine” deficit in the force.

This concern was of specific relevance in the Pacific, as Combatant Commanders there for years echoed a familiar refrain … that operational demand for Virginia-class attack submarines massively outmatched available supply.

This concern goes back as far as 10-years or more. Years ago, the Navy’s 30-year Shipbuilding Plan regularly cited submarine fleet-size numbers and pointed out that the pace at which Los Angeles Class submarines were retiring was much faster than new Virginia-class submarines could be added. Congress has for many years been working with the Navy to address this, as years ago the Navy anticipated a submarine “deficit” to worsen as more legacy boats retire, Virginia construction ramps up and industry begins to build a new generation of Columbia-class SSBN submarines.

Following all these efforts, lawmakers did indeed succeed in increasing annual Virgina-class submarine construction, yet in recent years decision-makers in both the Republican and Democratic parties have expressed grave concern about large-scale reductions in annual submarine construction funding.

The conversations have focused upon budget as well as discussion about ways to “flex” the industrial base such that it could accommodate a much-increased op-tempo. Many Navy weapons developers, commanders and members of Congress have for years been advocating for an “increased” Virginia-class attack submarine construction pace to help mitigate the growing deficit. 

At one point, the US Navy’s now former acquisition executive Mr. James Geurts supervised a special expert driven industrial base capacity study intended to explore this question, and indeed the results showed that the submarine-construction industrial base could in fact “stretch” to increase construction of Virginia-class by at least one extra boat per year after production of the Columbia’s got fully revved up. As former Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development and Acquisition), Geurts was naturally quite familiar with the US industrial base capacity. Following this study in subsequent years, the industrial base building submarines in the United States did, in fact, massively expand, with close support and cooperation with the US Navy. General Dynamics Electric Boat and HII both added new skilled personnel, manufacturing equipment and even constructed new facilities to absorb an expected “uptick” in submarine construction. In particular, General Dynamics Electric Boat did build a new facility in Rhode Island and added capacity in New London as well.