By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior Maven
Russia may be refining preparations to deploy a new generation of hypersonic, nuclear-capable “Iskander 1000” ballistic missiles which claims to double the range of the existing Iskander-M and add new guidance, targeting and hardening technology.
A February 2025 essay in Russian Press Agency Sputnik on February 4, 2025, states that a new version of Russia’s Iskander surface-to-surface tactical ballistic missile, dubbed the Iskander-1000, will be able to reach a range of up to 1,000 km and replace of the 400 km of the Iskander-M version. Sputnik says the new weapon is “set to be deployed in Ukraine in the near future.” Sputnik is, however, at times regarded as Russian propaganda and this claim may or may not be true. An interesting report in Ukraines UNN says the Russian claim is deliberate disinformation and that the existing Iskander-M variant is experiencing production problems.
Nevertheless, Russia’s existing Iskander-M variant is deployed in Ukraine and taken seriously by the Pentagon due to its speed and maneuverability.
“The Iskander does not fly a traditional ballistic trajectory. It sort of flies like a snake. It can, in fact, maneuver in flight. Supposedly, it also has some countermeasures that it can deploy also. But I would also note that in Ukraine, both the ballistic Iskander as well as the air-launched Kinzhal have both been intercepted by the Patriot. So I think they’ve got a ways to go to be able to make it invulnerable, so to speak,” top nuclear weapons expert James Howe told Warrior.
((Howe is the President of Strategic Concepts and Analysis and former Director, Threats, Technologies and Future Requirements for Boeing Missile Defense Division. Mr. Howe has performed studies for OSD, DTRA, NNSA, DIA/MSIC and USA SMDC and briefed his research to OSD, ONR, STRATCOM, USSC, NSA, CIA, NIC and DIA . He recently discussed his research with Warrior and the Advanced Alliance for Nuclear Weapons in an interview about his research. Howe explained this during the inaugural episode of Warrior-ANWA’s Future Series NucleaCast PODCAST.))
Nuclear Capable
Howe’s discussion of a maneuverable Iskander aligns with a US Army Training and Doctrine Command assessment of the existing Iskander – M, which describes the Russian weapon as both nuclear-capable and maneuverable. The TRADOC essay on the Iskander describes the weapon as capable of massive and dangerous speeds of Mach 6-7, stealth and nuclear-capable. The TRADOC report further describes the Iskander as “quasi ballistic missiles with a published range of 415km, speeds of Mach 6-7, flight altitude up to 6-50km and nuclear capable stealth missile. Immediately after the launch and upon approach to the target, the missile performs intensive maneuvering to evade anti-ballistic missiles. The missile constantly maneuvers during flight as well.”
Howe’s point about the Patriot is extremely significant, as the interceptor has in recent years gone through paradigm-changing upgrades to the point wherein it can now track and destroy moving targets in the air such as aircraft and two maneuvering cruise missiles at one time. It could therefore make sense that upgraded Patriots could intercept existing Iskanders moving at or up to hypersonic speeds. The ability of the Patriot to intercept the Iskander is quite significant, and it would seem to suggest that Ukraine has been receiving upgraded variants of the Patriot which now use a new generation of radar, multi-node networking and fire control technology to track and intercept targets. In recent years, Raytheon’s Ghost Eye next-generation radar, known as the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor, or LTAMDS, has indeed shown in testing that it can integrate with a Patriot battery to track and destroy multiple high-speed, maneuvering cruise missiles at one time.
Maneuverable Iskander
While Russia claims to have doubled the range of its high-speed Isakander missile and surged into a mass production effort of the weapon, top experts like Howe raised questions about this telling Warrior that only way to double the range is to use a larger booster, add new higher performance fuel or simply reduce payload.
An essay in Defense Security Asia says Russia is building this new variant of its Iskander-M ballistic missile able to hit targets as far as 1,000km away, double the range of its existing Iskander-M’s 500km range. While Defense Security Asia cites unnamed “sources” regarding the range extension for the new Iskander 1000, the possibility of the weapon is certain to be taken seriously by NATO and the West.
The upgraded Iskander-M missile is stated to be engineered with new countermeasures, passive and active decoys and a next-generation guidance system. The essay adds further specifics, suggesting that the weapon is built with advanced, satellite networking and advanced guidance and precision. Some of its attributes, as written by Defence Asia, say the Iskander 1000 has Autonomous Inertial Navigation Systems, Terrain Contour Matching and an extremely precise Circular Error Probable of 16 feet.
Should the Russian claims be correct, the Iskander 1000 would be able to achieve an extremely precise CEP of 16ft. (CEP is a metric meaning that 50-% of the missiles will land within 16th of an intended target)
Iskander 1000 Attack NATO?
Russia may not be inclined to fire its Iskander 1000 toward NATO, given the clear assurance that NATO could respond with a range of weapons. While the Typhon system does not, at the moment, incorporate hypersonic speeds equivalent to the Iskander 1000, it does present an ability to respond to any mid-range missile attack with precision missile capability such as the now-emerging Precision Strike Missile. Also, the US Army’s Long Range Hypersonic Weapon is surging toward operational status and is precisely the kind of weapon in position to counterbalance Russia’s Iskander 1000.
Nonetheless, the speed of the Iskander 1000 could at the moment appear to present substantial challenges to NATO in a variety of respects. Yet as is often the case with Russia, they at times lack an ability to “mass-produce” or “scale” Its exquisite, next-generation of weapons. This may not be the case with the Iskander 1000, Howe explained, because Russia could produce a longer range Iskander at roughly the same rate that it produces the Iskander -M. How explained that Russia can produce 200-300 per year
While several Iskander 1000s do present a threat, at the moment it would appear Russia might be at a loss to fire a “salvo” or “overwhelming” number of the missiles, at least for the time being. This would greatly marginalize their impact as the weapon would likely be unable to “blanket” or “mitigate” NATO’s expansive missile defense apparatus which includes Aegis Ashore, Patriot Systems and other countermeasures. These defenses, coupled with the assurance of a counter strike ability, might give Putin “pause” to actually use the weapon. This dynamic will also be greatly altered if, as the reports indicate, Russia is able to “mass-produce” these weapons to present a “massed” or “scaled” threat. However, despite Putin’s claim that the Iskander and Kinzal are invulnerable, the Patriot has a 90-percent kill rate.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
