By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The US Navy and the Pentagon’s Strategic Command intend engineer a new warhead to be deployed on the famous Trident II D5 nuclear-armed, submarine-launched weapon for decades into the future, in large measure due to a series of key upgrades and “life extension” programs.
The National Nuclear Security Administration is requesting $390 million for a new “warhead” for the Trident II D5, called the W93, according to an interesting essay from Arms Control Today. The Pentagon is working to modernize, sustain and upgrade the missile as well and is requesting $126 million for the Mk7 aeroshell designed to integrate into the W93 as well, the Army Control Today paper says These requests are a few of the recent parts of a longstanding, multi-year effort to integrate a new warhead in coming years.
The W93 has been in development for several years as a new nuclear warhead, described by the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation as slated to arrive by 2040.
Upgrades to the Trident have been underway for many years, yet naturally many details regarding the technological adjustments or new W93 warhead are not likely to be available for security reasons. The Pentagon and Navy have, however, been clear that the missile now operates with a longer-lasting “Life Extension” variant. In a general sense, the new W93 warhead is explained in the text of a document cited by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists from the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Association as having the “flexibility to address future threats.”
“Anchored on previously tested nuclear components, the W93 will incorporate modern technologies to improve safety, security, and flexibility to address future threats. It will be designed for ease of manufacturing, maintenance, and certification. All of its key nuclear components will be based on currently deployed and previously tested nuclear designs, as well as extensive stockpile component and materials experience. It will not require additional nuclear explosive testing to be certified,” the text of the US Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Association’s 2022 Stockpile, Stewardship and Management Plan states.
Trident IID5 Life Extension Plan
This “Life Extension” plan, called the Trident II D5LE weapon, has been developing and being integrated in recent years as a way to ensure the US undersea deterrent remains effective, highly modernized and capable of responding as needed in the event of a tragic and unwanted crisis.
A new, life-extended variant, called the Trident II D5LE, was first installed in 2017, arming the fleet with an upgraded weapon, according to a Navy fact sheet. The three-stage ballistic missile can travel a nominal range of 4,000 nautical miles and carry multiple independently targeted reentry bodies, according to Navy and Lockheed information. The Pentagon has also engineered a newer, “low-yield” variant of the Trident II D5 in response to guidance provided by the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review. The concept with a lower-yield Trident II D5 is intended to offer commanders a wider range of deterrence options for the purpose of avoiding a nuclear confrontation.
History of the Trident II D5
The Trident II D5, first fired in the 1990s, is an upgraded version of the 1970s-era Trident I nuclear weapon; the Trident II D5s were initially engineered to serve until 2027, however the arrival of the LE variants will likely extend the missile into the future for decades. The Trident II D5 missile is deployed aboard U.S. Navy Ohio-class submarines and Royal Navy Vanguard-class to deter nuclear aggression. The three-stage ballistic missile can travel a nominal range of 4,000 nautical miles and carry multiple independently targeted reentry bodies.The 130,000-pound Trident II D5 missile can travel 20,000-feet per second, according to Navy figures. In recent years, the U.S. and UK have been collaboratively working on a common missile compartment for their next generation SSBNs, the US Navy;s now emerging Columbia-class submarines and the UK”s Vanguard boats.
While it is certainly conceivable the Navy may engineer a new nuclear missile in coming years, the “Life Extension” program for Trident is extremely significant and expected to be lasting, something of critical importance given the security role played by US Navy nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines. The entire premise of the undersea leg of the nuclear triad could accurately be described as somewhat paradoxical, as it exists to prevent nuclear war by ensuring total destruction of any would-be adversary launching a nuclear attack upon the US. Indeed, a weapon capable of causing massive annihilation, unimaginable casualties and potentially unprecedented destruction exists for the sole purpose of “keeping the peace,” and “preventing war.” Surely the promise of complete destruction through a guaranteed retaliatory strike is likely to cause potential adversaries some significant measure of “pause” should they be contemplating a nuclear attack upon the US. Essentially, the undersea leg of the nuclear triad equates an enemy nuclear attack on the US, quite simply, to suicide.
Paradox of Nuclear Deterrence
Former Air Force 3-star Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, did tell Warrior in an interview years ago that the Pentagon’s new ICBM, now called the Sentinel, was being engineered for increased reliability, flight trajectory and targeting. While Weinstein talked about land-fired ICBMs, his explanation of nuclear deterrence equally applies to the undersea portion of the triad and likely aligns with the kind of thinking informing efforts to build a new warhead.
During his discussion with Warrior years ago, Weinstein explained the rationale behind the Pentagon’s concept of deterrence and the need to maintain a strong, ready nuclear arsenal. Weinstein cited the work of a famous 1940s World War II-era philosopher named Bernard Brodie. Brodie, a Yale Professor in 1945, envisioned what is now understood as a famous paradox central to nuclear deterrence. Throughout human history, weapons have always been created to “use” against or “kill” an enemy. The served a specific purpose and had a specific function. The “intent” has always been to “use” them in conflict. Nuclear weapons, however, are entirely different as, arguably for the first time in human history, they are weapons intended “not” to be used by rather “stop,” “prevent,” or “avoid” military confrontation. Essentially, nuclear weapons are built with the intent and hope that they will “never be used.”
Brodies 1946 Essay, called “Implications for Military Policy,” and Essay in The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and the World Order published by Yale Universities’ Institute of International Studies, emerged just following the nuclear attacks upon Hiroshima ending WWII. His basic premise is clear – the promise of total, catastrophic destruction – prevents war.
“If the atomic bomb can be used without fear of substantial retaliation in kind, it will clearly encourage aggression. So much the more reason, therefore, to take all possible steps to assure that multilateral possession of the bomb, should that prove inevitable, be attended by arrangements to make as nearly certain as possible that the aggressor who uses the bomb will have it
used against him. If such arrangements are made, the bomb cannot but prove in the net a powerful inhibition to aggression,” Brodie writes in the Yale essay, published by Air Force Magazine.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
