By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
A recently published Congressional analysis cites evidence that Iran is surging forward with an ability to develop and acquire nuclear weapons, something likely to be of grave concern to the Pentagon, Israel and NATO allies in Europe.
“The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States,” does not specifically say Iran currently possesses nuclear weapons but does cite the seriousness of a fast-evolving risk, including the possibility that Iran could have a nuclear weapon by as soon as 2027.
“The Commission’s assessment is that the United States must consider the possibility that Iran will become a nuclear state during the 2027-2035 timeframe,” the report states.
Nuclear Iran?
The risks posed by Iran do indeed appear quite serious and also quickly increasing, according to multiple reports and publicly available assessments. An essay from earlier this year in Warrior Maven, for example, cites evidence of Iranian progress likely to be of concern to the Pentagon. “In the latest IAEA quarterly publication issued in March, inspectors’ findings amplified the warning that Iran is expanding its arsenal materials exponentially. The report found that Iran has nearly 33 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran is just 7 kilograms short of producing enough weapons-grade nuclear fuel for a weapon,” the Warrior Maven essay reports.
This threat posed by Iran, along with what the report cites as a “two-peer” nuclear environment involving growing risks from both China and Russia, is cited by the Congressional commission as a key reason why the Pentagon needs to massively increase its nuclear arsenal.
“A number of commissioners believe it is inevitable that the size of the U.S. nuclear stockpile and the number of delivery systems should increase,” the detailed study, called “The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States,” states.
Nuclear Armed Iran
Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense in Romania
A nuclear-armed Iran introduces a number of significant implications, not the least of which of course relates to a major increase in threats to Israel and parts of Europe. Up until this current nuclear weapons threat, Iranian ballistic missiles have been known as a serious threat as well, a concern the Pentagon has sought to address in recent years with the addition of Aegis Ashore land-based missile defense systems in Poland and Romania. The program, implemented during the Obama administration, is called the European Phased Adapted Approach, a land-based application of SM-3 Armed Aegis interceptor missiles intended to safeguard Europe, NATO and forward positioned US forces. An interesting Navy essay from October, 2022 explains that Romania’s EPAA location is indeed operational. As of last year, the US Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System Romania (USAAMDSRO) is under the command of US Naval Forces Europe, based in Naples, Italy. The interceptor missiles are located at a Naval Support Facility in Deveselu, Romania.
An easily overlooked detail of great significance highlighted in the 2022 Navy essay is that land-based Aegis Ashore in Romania is engineered to network with US Navy Destroyers, which are also equipped with Aegis Radar. Strategically, this means a ballistic missile protective envelope can extend across areas of the Black Sea as well as portions of the European continent.
“This land-based missile defense facility is designed to detect, track, engage, and destroy ballistic missiles in flight outside the atmosphere. Its technology is nearly identical to and works in coordination with the systems used on the four forward-deployed naval forces Europe Aegis destroyers,” the Navy essay writes.
The Romanian Aegis can also help protect key NATO allies such asTurkey, Bulgaria and Greece from Iranian ballistic missile attacks, an extremely important fact given that these southern European countries are well within the reach of Iran’s well-known arsenal of ballistic missiles. Specifically, both Turkey, parts of Bulgaria and possibly Romania could be seen as within range of certain Iranian long-range ballistic missiles. Iran borders Turkey, and Istanbul is listed as only 2,431km from Tehran, Iran, a distance which appears to be within the reported range of Iran’s now-deployed Khorramshar ballistic missile cited by “Iran Watch” to be capable of reaching distances between 2,000 and 3,000km. Also, should launch sites be placed in Northern Iran along the Turkish border, Bulgaria, Romania and even Greece are likely at risk from Iranian ballistic missiles. Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles, as cataloged by Iran Watch, is extremely large and includes well-known weapons such as the Shahab-3 which can reportedly travel 1,300km.
The gravest threat, given Iran’s threats and overall posture, may be to Israel, as Jerusalem is 1,982km from Tehran, a distance suggesting attacks from Western Iran would not have far to go to attack virtually all of Israel.
Romanian ICBM Defense?
The exact configuration of the Aegis Ashore fire control configuration was engineered and put in place years ago to fire Standard-range SM-3 interceptors, however it is likely that the system is upgradeable to the point wherein it could accommodate the newest SM-3 Block IIA interceptor. The SM-3 Block IIA, built by Raytheon, is an upgraded interceptor which is longer range, larger and more precise than previous variants. Of greatest significance, the SM-3 Block IIA has already been configured into Vertical Launch Systems on US Navy destroyers, and has demonstrated an ability to track and intercept “dummy” ICBM targets descending from just beyond the earth’s atmosphere. This adaptation, which greatly expands the US Navy’s missile defense posture from the ocean, might well be extended to Aegis Ashore, a development which could increase Southern Europe’s missile defense protective envelope to include the ability to track and destroy ICBMs, should Iran possess them. ICBMS are in many cases capable of traveling as far as 4,000 miles or more, a circumstance which places all of Europe at risk of nuclear attack from Iran.
Certainly the Pentagon goal would be to prevent Iran from obtaining an ICBM or nuclear-armed weapon of any kind, yet given the realistic possibility and risk of that happening, it would not be surprising if NATO explored options to increase its land and sea-based missile defense technology to include new Ground-Based Interceptors and ship-integrated SM-3 Block IIAs capable of tracking and destroying ICBMs.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary o
f the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
