by Mark Episkopos, Managing Editor, Center for Military Modernization
Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter will receive new missiles with an effective range of up to 300km, according to Russian defense industry sources.
“In the SMO (special military operation) the Su-57 performs missions with high quality, effectively hits targets, its distinguishing feature is low visibility,” reported Russian state news outlet TASS, citing a source in Russia’s military-industrial complex. “Today, the fighter operates at a range of up to 120km, in the near future we await the arrival of air-launched missiles for high-speed air targets at a distance of up to 300km.” The SMO, or “special military operation,” is the Kremlin’s preferred nomenclature for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. TASS’ source did not specify which new missile will make its way to the Su-57, though it has been speculated to be the potent new R-37M long-range air-to-air missile that has already reportedly been used in Ukraine by modernized MiG-31BM interceptors. R-37M missiles have also reportedly been fired in Ukraine by Su-35S multirole fighters.
Both Russian sources and the U.K. Ministry of Defense have asserted that Su-57 fighters have been used in the Russia-Ukraine war. TASS reported that the deployment of Su-57’s in Ukraine began as early as two to three weeks after the Russian invasion commenced on February 24, 2022. Despite these claims, there remains no verifiable evidence that Su-57 units have been used in Ukraine at all, let alone in significant numbers.
Despite being designed in large part for an air superiority role, Russia’s ongoing failure to achieve air dominance in Ukraine means that Su-57’s– to the debatable extent that they are currently being used at all– are limited to striking Ukrainian infrastructure and other targets at standoff ranges. The missiles in question would not increase the Su-57’s lethality against ground targets. They also cannot target the NATO AWACS planes that are feeding Ukraine’s military battlefield information whilst operating from Polish airspace without taking the massive escalatory step of striking NATO units on NATO territory.
They can, however, impose additional constraints on the already-limited ability of Ukrainian aircraft to operate in Ukrainian airspace. They can also make it even more difficult for Ukraine to achieve and exploit even so much as localized pockets of air superiority that could be used to speed up its plodding counteroffensive in the south. The R-37M far outranges the Artem R-27 air-to-air missiles used by Ukraine’s dwindling fleet of Soviet-era MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters, further widening a gap in air-to-air capabilities that is already lopsidedly in Russia’s favor.
Then there is the aspect of foreign military aid to Ukraine, a phenomenon that Russia has actively– and so far, fruitlessly– sought to discourage with a blend of threats and countermeasures. The Su-57 announcement, which comes amid Ukraine’s ongoing attempts to acquire fourth-generation F-16 fighters from its western partners, is difficult to interpret as anything other than a signal that Russia will make it a top priority to zealously prosecute any aircraft transferred to Ukraine’s air force by the west. The TASS story may, in this way, be intended to deter Ukraine’s partners from proceeding with such transfers. Denmark and the Netherlands have already pledged to donate F-16’s to Ukraine, though the timetable for these commitments and certain details related to execution, including the number of fighters promised by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, remain unclear.
Serial production and combat-readiness estimates for the Su-57 fighter have varied wildly over the years, with the Su-57 program facing cyclical delays and repeated budgetary shortfalls since the first prototype flew in 2010. The Russian Defense Ministry has ordered a total of seventy-six fighters, to be delivered to the Russian military by 2028. According to the latest assessments, Russia’s Aerospace Forces currently field no more than fifteen Su-57 fighters.
Mark Episkopos is the new Managing Editor of the Center for Military Modernization. Episkopos is a journalist, researcher, and analyst writing on national security and international relations issues. He is also a Ph.D. candidate in history at American University.
