By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
In recent years, some have raised the question as to whether the F-35 is, is becoming or soon will be the fighter jet for “the free world,” and there is a lot of mounting evidence to suggest the global community of Joint Strike Fighter members will both expand and grow in size.
There are many reasons for this such as the aircraft’s performance in wargames, customer nation responses to having the F-35 and testimonials from experienced pilots who have spent years flying 4th-generation aircraft and discuss the F-35.
The jet is also growing in terms of sheer numbers, as the US Air Force alone already operates more than 300 F-35s, and allied nations are growing their fleet very quickly. Most of all, beyond Switzerland, Germany, Finland and many others, several as-of-yet non-F-35 customers are potentially entering the conversation, at least in terms of the realm of the possible. For example, there is no official or formal effort to sell the F-35 to India or Taiwan, yet the possibility is understandably getting a lot of attention.
When one considers Korea’s participation in the F-35 program, Japan’s massive multi-billion-dollar F-35 buy and Israel’s special high-tech indigenous Adir variant, it would appear that the growing community of F-35 nations is becoming extremely significant. Beyond the original members, the community of F-35 nations has exploded to include Finland, Poland, Germany, Switzerland and has for a while included Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Belgium, Denmark, Italy and the UK.
Fighter of the “Free World”
Clearly, this introduces a number of potentially unprecedented tactical implications, such as the ability for European allies to collectively form truly massive F-35 formations to achieve and sustain air supremacy, conduct Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) and share targeting and threat information.
Sharing target data, for instance, is of particular relevance given the often discussed Multi-Function Data Link (MADL) unique to the F-35, which enables continuous, secure, and high-speed data transmission between all F-35s regardless of country. This means that of course not only will F-35s operate with a collective ability to exchange targeting specifics but also function as “nodes” across meshed ISR formations. Specifically, F-35 sensors and computing bring a “drone”-like surveillance capability, which when combined with networking through MADL, can transmit time-sensitive intelligence data, images, and video across otherwise disparate formations of F-35s.
Given that F-35s operate with ever-evolving Mission Data Files, described as an onboard computer library of threat specifics, JSFs from different countries can both “Identify” and “transmit” exact threat details and verifications across joint force formations.
Yet another advantage to this kind of large-scale expansion of F-35 nations is, simply put, it enables an ability to “mass” airpower in support of air supremacy missions. Larger numbers of aircraft increase the ability to penetrate otherwise denied or high-risk airspace and use stealth and speed to elude and destroy enemy air defenses. In the event of a large-scale air war effort, or a fast-emerging need to counter an approaching enemy ground incursion, a sizable, multinational and networked collective of F-35s could optimize needed attack operations across a wide envelope of operations.
F-35 Sustainment
Logistics and sustainment also figure prominently in this equation, as the larger the F-35 force is across the continent, the easier and faster it becomes to strengthen and maintain the supply chain. Not only will there be common parts, but also more opportunities to repair, upgrade, or even modernize the jet moving into future years.
This brings the question of “modernization” to mind, as part of the F-35’s appeal may simply relate to the Pentagon’s plans for continuous modernization and upgrade possibilities for the F-35 as it surges into future decades. The Pentagon’s intent is to fly the F-35 into the 2070s through a “continuous” modernization program using software upgrades, weapons systems interface enhancements, new computing, and the ability to accommodate new weapons as they emerge.
This plan, which relies to a large extent upon continued software modernization, is quite significant, given that many near-term technological breakthroughs or “disruptive” innovations are likely to arrive in the areas of computing, mission systems, sensing, and other high-performance areas not necessarily related to a need to rebuild or change the basic external configuration or design of the aircraft itself.
The F-35, which is now almost an entirely different aircraft its original commission due to weapons and software upgrades, is a trend that could continue into future decades. The hope is to ensure the F-35 remains dominant and relevant 40 years from now.
India F-35?
In recent years, there has been nothing short of an explosion of new F-35 customers to include Finland, Switzerland, Poland, Germany and others … So why not India? Certainly the US-Indian collaborative relationship is growing much stronger in many ways, particularly in defense. Recently, India and the US have signed several collaborative defense industry development deals to strengthen Indian compatibility and interoperability with the US and allied forces.
Deterring China
Clearly there is a need to deter China from threatening India from its Western border beyond Tibet is a danger India takes seriously, particularly in recent years given border clashes and contestested regions.
The threat from China’s Western border has only grown more significant in recent years due to China’s intense military modernization efforts. China has regularly written in its government-backed Global Times newspaper that part of its military modernization includes building vehicles, platforms and weapons systems specifically designed to fight in the plateau areas of Western China.
Countering China’s J-20
There is also a need to counter the Chinese J-20, a stealth 5th-gen, land-launched aircraft potentially in position to threaten India. An Indian F-35 might be well positioned to challenge or even destroy the Chinese J-20 in the event there is a war for air supremacy along the border region. Part of this equation would also need to consider the F-35’s sensors as its computing and long-range, high-fidelity sensing could perform critical ISR functions along the Chinese border while being in position to attack if necessary.
China’s military modernization includes the rapid addition new J-20 fifth-generation aircraft. The increasing numbers of J-20s makes it important to discern if the Chinese fighter jet is comparable to the American F-35 Lightning II.
Department of Defense reports have noted that elements of the J-20 appear to mirror or mimic attributes of the F-35 and F-22 Raptor. However, at least in the short term, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force operates far fewer J-20s than
the number of F-35s planned for acquisition.
That would seem to indicate an advantage for the United States. But China’s recent production rates and capacities, especially in the area of shipbuilding, may one day extend to aircraft construction as well.
The external configuration of the J-20 appears stealthy as it incorporates a horizontal, blended-wing body exterior with a rounded, gradually sloped structure. This design is intended to generate a much lower and less detectable radar cross section. Vertical structures or protruding formations can generate a stronger return signal in response to electromagnetic pings. Interestingly, the back portion of the plane appears to mirror an F-22 more than the F-35. The plane has dual exhaust suggesting the presence of a dual-engine design. While there are likely internal engines and measures of thermal management technologies, information on coating materials, heat signature management, and engines is likely difficult to come by.
Chinese newspapers have reported that the J-20 is built with a domestically-produced WS-15 engine. More recently, Chinese papers and the Department of Defense’s 2021 report on Chinese military power cited efforts to upgrade the J-20 to rival the F-22 with supercruise ability. However, F-22 supercruise, which enables the jet to sustain supersonic speeds without afterburners, may be difficult to replicate. It is not clear that Chinese engineering can actually match the F-22 in speed and aerial maneuverability. It may not rival the F-35 in these respects either, but the verdict remains unknown
There are other unknowns when comparing the F-35 and J-20. The true difference may reside in a series of unknowns, meaning superiority would likely be determined by mission systems, weapons and targeting, computing, and sensing. Regardless of the extent to which the external configuration of the J-20 appears similar to the F-35, the J-20 may be unable to rival the F-35 in terms of computing and sensor technology. Could a J-20 even see an F-35 before it were found and targeted by an F-35? Does it operate with any kind of high-speed computing able to organize incoming sensor data to present an integrated view to pilots? Does it have AIM-9X-like off-boresight targeting technology or other weapons with advanced guidance systems? Finally, are there built-in technical standards to upgrade the J-20 to match or rival the F-35 in coming years? The F-35, which will soon field unparalleled weapons such as the Stormbreaker, is engineered with an ability to accommodate new weapons, fire control technologies, and guidance systems as they become available in coming years. The Pentagon plans to fly the F-35 for decades into the future.
Indian F-35 Advantages
One of the largest advantages presented by an Indian F-35 would also be the potential for multi-domain networking, as a common Multifunction Advanced Data Link (MADL) would instantly and securely connect across a multi-national force of F-35s. Indian F-35s could connect with any ground-based US Air Force F-35As or even amphibs or carrier-launched F-35Cs and F-35Bs operating from the Indian Ocean or Bay of Bengal. This would allow India, the US and other regional allies to establish networked aerial formations across a dispersed operational envelope.
There is already a collaborative industrial effort underway between the Pentagon, Indian defense authorities and Lockheed Martin regarding the construction of a specially configured upgraded F-16 variant referred to as the F-21. Lockheed has in recent years been working to help fortify industrial base capacity in the region, a development which might make it easier to accommodate an Indian F-35. An industrial presence would prove critical when it comes to any F-35 sustainment, maintenance and upgrades which might be needed as well.
Perhaps there is concern similar to what may cause the Pentagon to pause or hesitate about the possibility of exporting the F-35 to Taiwan, as DoD might not want to provoke or challenge Chinese air superiority in the Indo-Pacific and further inflame tensions. However, when it comes to pure deterrence and the reality that China would likely hesitate to engage a formidable force of F-35s and compete for air superiority, there is a strong argument for why it might make sense to bring F-35s to India. F-35s are already present in impactful numbers in Asia due to F-35 partners such as Singapore, Japan, Australia and South Korea. F-35 threats on China’s Western border might prove extremely impactful.
An Indian F-35 would likely be engineered to network with India special F-16 variant called the F-21, a special upgraded F-16 put together specifically for India. India is now working with Lockheed and the Pentagon to set up the industrial infrastructure to support building the plane. The F-21 incorporates a few technologies unique to India, such as Electronic Warfare weapons and something called Triple Missiles Launcher Adapters, which arm the aircraft with 40 percent more air-to-air weapons when compared with standard or previous F-16s.
F-35 to Taiwan
The F-35 is spreading like wildfire throughout the free world to include NATO allies in Europe to include Poland, Germany, Finland, and Switzerland as well as critical areas of the Pacific such as Japan, but why hasn’t the Pentagon, Biden administration, or Congress approved the sale of the F-35 to Taiwan?
It would certainly make sense for Taiwan to operate F-35s along with Singapore, Japan, Australia, and South Korea, given that 5th-generation air superiority is arguably the largest advantage the U.S. and its allies would have over China.
Beijing has a large and threatening high-tech Navy, a massive stockpile of ballistic missiles, and large numbers of ground forces, yet the PRC seems to lack the ability to mass 5th-gen air power in a way that would challenge the U.S. and its allies.
Of course, China has the J-20, yet it must launch from land and, while the PRC Navy (PLAN) is developing the carrier-launched J-31 stealth fighter jet it is not clear how far along the project is or if they can exist in impactful numbers.
Certainly, as a small island only 100 miles off the coast of China, Taiwan is within the attack range of China’s growing fleet of J-20s, yet it seems unlikely that China would be able to provide 5th-generation air superiority in support of any amphibious assault on Taiwan.
Conversely, it seems much more likely that U.S. and allied 5th-generation aircraft would be positioned to outmatch and destroy any Chinese air presence
and essentially incinerate or destroy an attacking Chinese amphibious force.
Another possibility to consider is simply that the U.S. and its Southeastern Asian allies already have the 5th-generation air superiority necessary to outmatch China in the air. Japan has recently made a very large, multi-billion F-35 buy, Korea is already an F-35 partner and the U.S. Navy makes Pacific theater “forward presence” a huge priority.
For several years now, the Pentagon has ensured an increasingly large U.S. Navy Pacific footprint in support of the multi-service Pacific Pivot put into effect years ago.
This means that there will continue to be consistent Carrier Strike Group deployments to the Pacific theater, including war preparation exercises such as “dual carrier” training operations.
Also, existing big-deck amphibious assault ships can travel with up to 13 F-35Bs on board, meaning 5th-generation air power can be forward located in potentially impactful numbers to ensure air superiority in the event of an engagement with China.
Why Not Send F-35s to Taiwan?
Given these circumstances, perhaps the Pentagon may think it too provocative or potentially inflammatory to send F-35s to Taiwan, despite the fact that it would both make sense and be highly impactful. Perhaps the Pentagon want to make sure F-35 technologies don’t fall into the wrong hands?
Arguably, not sending F-35s to Taiwan could be seen as a bit of a disconnect, because the Pentagon already sends missiles, helicopters, and even Abrams tanks to Taiwan. Abrams tanks could, in particular, slow down or potentially stop a Chinese amphibious landing and prevent the PLA from occupying territory or seizing ground ashore.
The F-35, however, could be seen as quite different than legacy platforms such as Apaches and tanks, as it is arguably something the People’s Republic of China could see as an aggressive move by the West and perhaps inspire or move the countries much closer to conflict.
Despite these risks, however, it does seem to make sense to send the F-35 to Taiwan, as it is an extremely credible deterrent. Beijing would likely think twice about attacking Taiwan if its amphibious assault force or aircraft had to encounter Taiwanese F-35s.
F-35 Pilots Speak
The F-35 is armed with a 25mm cannon, flies with a 5th-Generation stealth configuration, attacks with an entirely new generation of air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons, yet its most defining characteristic may ultimately lie in the often cited realm of “sensor fusion.”
This sensibility seemed to emerge as a consistent point of emphasis from an interview I did recently with three F-35 pilots. Lockheed Martin F-35 Test Pilot Chris “Worm” Spinelli, who spent 24 years in the Air Force, told me the aircraft is defined by “data integration.”
F-35 Data Integration
“For me, the biggest difference I’ve seen between flying the fourth-generation F-16, which is what I previously flew, and my few hours in the F-35 is its data integration and data management capabilities. It allows extreme situational awareness–more than any other platform that we’ve generated, at least that I’ve flown,” Spinelli said.
The merits of such a technological process are certainly self-evident to be certain, yet “sensor fusion” also introduces interesting tactical dynamics which might easily be overlooked. The F-35’s turn pilots into “true tacticians.” Tony “Brick” Wilson, who now works for Lockheed Martin as the Chief of Fighter Flight Operations (F-35 Test Pilot), told me in an F-35 pilot interview special.
“Applying the system of sensor fusion reduces pilot workload and allows the pilots to have a situational “bubble” so that they’re more than just a pilot and they’re more than a sensor manager. They’re true tacticians. The fact that the pilot has the spare capacity increases survivability and makes them more lethal,” Wilson said.
Fighter jets operate in alignment with a host of distinct and manageable variables such as altitude, navigational trajectory, speed and a need to gather and process time-sensitive data and weapons information.
F-35s are armed with a next-generation suite of EW weapons, upgraded air-to-air attack missiles, long-range targeting sensors, mission data files or a threat library for enemy target “identification;” sensor fusion “declutters” all of this, Monessa “Siren” Balzhiser, a Lockheed Martin F-35 Production and Training PIlot, told me in the interview.
“The great thing about [the display] is you can control what you see and what you don’t. You can declutter and put everything on it that you need, so you’re seeing an advanced picture of friendlies, air-to-air and air-to-ground stats, and navigation points. It’s all encompassed in one display, which is why I say it becomes a matter of how well a pilot can process all that data, because it’s a lot of data and it’s always dynamic. It’s always giving you real-time information from every single sensor in the jet,” Balzhiser said.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University. This was originally posted on 19FortyFive.com as part of a syndication agreement to publish their content. You can find more of their content at 19FortyFive.com.
