By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Faster, longer-range, more precise and capable of destroying multiple ICBMs at one time are merely a few of the characteristics expected to define the Pentagon’s new Next-Generation Interceptor effort, a fast-evolving, high-tech effort to keep pace with the growing nuclear threat landscape.
The intent with NGI, according to Pentagon and Missile Defense Agency data, is to build a new, more capable follow-on ICBM defensive weapon to succeed the current Ground Based Interceptor. While the GBIs are functional and continue to perform well in tests and receive upgrades, the Pentagon and MDA believe a new generation of interceptor technology is necessary to counter new nuclear threats posed by Russia and China.
In 2021, the MDA awarded development deals to a Northrop-Grumman-Raytheon NGI team and a Lockheed Martin-Aerojet Rocketdyne team. The initial thinking was perhaps that an operational new NGI might arrive by the end of the decade, however now the expectation is that a new NGI could be deployed by as soon as 2027, given the promise of the program.
The Northrop-Grumman-Raytheon team just completed its “Preliminary Design Review” for its NGI offering, a critical and necessary step to enable the intended deployment acceleration up to 2027. For its PDR, Northrop used on-site, interactive demonstrators to show the Missile Defense Agency full-scale rocket motors, avionics and other “test hardware.”
“The PDR (Preliminary Design Review) established the technical approach for the full integration of Northrop Grumman’s interceptor design across all subsystems to move into more advanced phases of development,” a Northrop Grumman essay states.
Northrop Grumman’s essay on NGI makes specific reference to its partner Raytheon and its long-standing expertise with “kill vehicle” technology in the realm of missile defense.
For many years now, Raytheon has been working on interceptor “seeker” technologies engineered with advanced “discriminating” capabilities, meaning it can more successfully discern and destroy an actual ICBM from decoys, countermeasures or debris. This is quite significant, as an enemy ICBM would likely travel through space alongside decoy missiles and countermeasures designed to confuse or thwart “interceptors” from hitting the actual ICBM, thereby increasing the likelihood that the weapon continues to its target. It makes sense that Raytheon would be partnering with Northrop on NGI given its history of working on advanced interceptors and discriminators such as the Exo-Atmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) and others.
The details of the kind of seeker technology being used for NGI is certain to be unavailable for security reasons, yet it’s reasonable to assume Raytheon has further advanced its seeker technologies such that the interceptor is likely to operate at a new level of discrimination and targeting accuracy.
The Northrop essay also cites the growing value of digital engineering, a weapons development technique which as gained considerable traction in recent years given that computer simulations can now very closely replicate performance parameters of key weapons systems. This enables weapons developers to assess multiple design options and technological configurations before actually “bending metal” to build prototypes for evaluation. Digital engineering was, for example, used with great effect in the development of the Pentagon’s Sentinel ICBM program as service weapons developers were able to test many design options before deciding to only build two.
Multiple-Kill Vehicle
The Missile Defense Agency’s solicitation for NGI several years ago was clear that the Pentagon was looking for a multiple-kill vehicle to travel on an interceptor and disperse several interceptors in the event several ICBMs were traveling through space in close proximity.
Chinese threat
The development and deployment acceleration is driven by several key variables such as fast growing nuclear threat posed by China and Russia; the Pentagon’s annual China report says the People’s Liberation Army will double its number of nuclear warheads in coming years and commercial satellite photos show that China is building large numbers of ground-silos for ICBMs in key locations throughout the country. The pace of PLA nuclear weapons expansion is staggering, as it is something which continues to generate massive amounts of concern among senior leaders at the Pentagon and in Congress.
Similarly, the Russian threat needs little explanation as it is both a longstanding concern and something which has greatly intensified in recent months given Russia’s threatening rhetoric about using nuclear weapons in relation to its war in Ukraine. Russia’s arsenal of conventional and tactical nuclear weapons has been well-known for quite some time, yet the current war in Ukraine has added new measures of uncertainty and possible volatility regarding Russia’s potential use of nuclear weapons.
Stop a “Bolt-out-of-the-Blue”
The potential arrival of an operational NGI could not be a moment too soon given the growing sophistication and sheer size of China’s nuclear arsenal. The threat of a possible PLA “bolt-out-of-the-blue” massive salvo of attacking ICBMs is likely a key reason why the MDA and its industry partners understand the need for “multiple kill vehicles” capable of tracking, distinguishing and destroying multiple ICBMs at one time.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
