by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The prospect of a combined China-Russia threat to the US is becoming more realistic and concerning, according to the US Navy’s Fleet Forces Commander in charge of projecting power, conducting deterrence missions and ensuring safe passage of global waterways.
Should Russia and China combine forces to rival the US, a scenario which appears to be growing more likely, the US military might be challenged to prevail. It is a relevant question likely entertained by wargamers exploring the ominous prospect of a US and allied war against a united Russian-Chinese force.
US Navy Adm. Daryl Caudle, Commander US Fleet Forces, identified what he called a “no-limits relationships” between Russia and China marked by a rapid uptick in joint patrols, training exercises and large-scale military cooperation.
“Bombers from both Russia and China operated out of China then they flew a joint mission into the Philippine Sea towards Guam. In December, four Russian and two Chinese aircraft flew a joint military air patrol composed of H-6 and T-U-95 bombers and S-U-35 and J-16 fighters, which then entered the South Korean Air Defense Identification Zone then turned east toward Japan,” US Navy Fleet Forces Commander Adm. Daryl Caudle, told an audience at the 2024 Surface Navy Association Symposium.
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Russian and Chinese forces have been strengthening military-to-military cooperation in recent years as well, with senior commanders and weapons developers regularly visiting one another in pursuit of various collaborative efforts. Last Summer, Russia and China conducted joint maritime naval war exercises in the Sea of Japan.
“The sea has once again emerged as a primary focal point for peer competition. Where the international commons are threatened and attacked with kinetic and non-kinetic fires that are growing in range, complexity, and precision,” Caudle said.
US vs Russia & China in the air
The question of a US war against a combined Russian and Chinese force is both complicated and quite nuanced. A conflict of this kind would likely unfold differently depending upon where and how such a war erupted. A Naval confrontation would likely prove the most dangerous for the US. While Russia does not have a formidable surface Navy, but the combination of the People’s Liberation Army – Navy size and high-threat Russian submarines would unquestionably present a large challenge for a multi-domain US force. However, any land or maritime engagement between the US and a joint Russian-Chinese force would most likely benefit from a major advantage in the air.
The US already operates hundreds of F-35s, many of which can launch from the sea, and neither Russia or China appear to have an ocean-launched 5th-generation aircraft. This would greatly limit any combined Russian-Chinese effort to conduct amphibious operations or project power from the ocean without being extremely vulnerable to US air power. China does have a sizeable force of J-20 aircraft, but they are strictly land operated, and the PLA Navy’s carrier-launched 5th-generation J-31 only exists thus far as a few prototypes. Russia operates an unknown, yet small amount of Su-57 5th-generation stealth aircraft, but they too are confined to land take-off and may exist in impactful numbers. In terms of sheer capability, it is not clear if the Su-57 or J-20 can rival the F-35 in the air, as that would likely be determined by the quality of computing, sensing, weapons and targeting on the airplanes.
The margin of difference would appear to be in the air, as any maritime or ground force with air superiority would be positioned to prevail, and at least at the moment, it would not seem that Russia or China could compete successfully with the US Air Force.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
