By Jim Morris, Warrior Vice President, News
A noted Western defense expert warns that the US needs to bolster its position in Latin America and the Caribbean if it wants to be ready for a war with China in the next few years.
In an essay for the Center for International Maritime Security’s website, Henry Ziemer says that China is beefing up its resources in the region, while the US is taking its own dominance there for granted.
“Today, Chinese-owned or operated ports dot the coastlines of LAC (Latin America and Caribbean) countries, secretive satellite ground stations collect signals intelligence in Argentina, and potentially Cuba, and PRC-supplied weapons have made their way into the hands of dictatorial regimes like Venezuela,“ Ziemer writes.
In case of war, he says China could use those capabilities to disrupt US operations, while leveraging its soft power to keep governments in the region neutral.
In 2022, the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy said that “No region impacts the United States more directly than the Western Hemisphere.” But there are indications, Ziemer writes, that the US has a “blind spot” when it comes to China’s actions there.
He points out that Brazil is the largest single recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment. At the same time, Brazil accounts for almost a fourth of Chinese food imports, and nearly 60 percent of its soybean imports.
Meanwhile, Chile and Peru account for roughly half of the copper that Beijing imports, while Chile and Argentina provide almost all of the lithium carbonate that’s sent to China. Those minerals are crucial to the Chinese defense industry.
Ziemer says there are three key wartime risks posed by China’s position in the Western Hemisphere – control over maritime choke points, dual use of space infrastructure to degrade US space forces and diplomatic pressure towards US allies.
So what is the solution? Ziemer makes three points.
The US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) should be better integrated when it comes to war plans involving the Pacific. He says there should be a designated role for SOUTHCOM in exercises such as Rim of the Pacific – Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru already take part in those drills.
At the same time, Ziemer writes, there should be increased defense cooperation with LAC countries and that the US should “seek to rise to the occasion in cases where LAC governments have already expressed interest in a closer security partnership” – such as in the cases of Ecuador and Brazil.
Finally, Ziemer writes that the US should harden allies against what he calls “Chinese economic coercion.” He points out that China controls the power supply in Lima, Peru and is developing a port in the country – both of which could allow Beijing to pressure the Peruvian government.
He also urges that the US consider investments that would reduce the amount of Chinese economic influence.
