New Drone & Missile Attacks in Red Sea: Why the Houthis Might Want the US to Retaliate

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

A US Navy destroyer has again shot down Houthi drone and anti-ship missile attacks in the Southern Red Sea, and US Central Command says there was no damage to any of the 18 ships operating in international waters in the area.

The USS Mason, a Navy destroyer, successfully defended a Houthi-launched drone and Houthi-fired anti-ship ballistic missile, stopping the 22nd attempted Houthi-attack since Oct 19, US CentCom says.

At this point, persistent Houthi-provocations and attacks are no longer surprising, apart from the mere fact that they continue despite stepped up international security in the Red Sea. There are several somewhat self-evident elements of this, such as the possible lack of effective guidance systems on Houthi-fired missiles, the effectiveness of US Navy layered ship-defenses and apparent Houthi information warfare ambitions.

It would seem difficult to interpret Houthi-attacks as somehow separate from its likely informational warfare aims, as they may seek a military response from the US. Perhaps they seek to inspire a larger conflict within the region or seek the informational or propaganda advantages which might attend any US or allied military response attacking Houthi-areas. How? It seems quite likely that the Houthis would replicate well-known Hamas and terrorist tactics of deliberately blending military targets with civilians to ensure innocent non-combatants were killed in any US strike. Video reports of injured or killed civilians in Yemen would support Houthi propaganda and enable Iran-backed proxy groups and other terrorist groups to generate recruiting material and an opportunity to blame the US for its own decision to imperil civilians. Images of civilians damaged by US missiles are likely exactly what the Houthis would like to see and circulate in support of their political and military objectives. Such images could also help Iran strengthen anti-US sentiment or anti-US alliances.

A simple look at the Hamas-Israeli war confirms the widely known terrorist willingness to imperil and kill civilians by using them as human shields and deliberately placing military personnel and high-value targets among civilians. Houthi rebels would likely do something quite similar and use images, videos and reports of casualties to support its own anti-US aims.

Even the most advanced US Navy precision weaponry would not be able to completely avoid civilian casualties if Houthi targets, fighters and weapons were deliberately placed among civilians and children.