(Washington, D.C) When it comes to the seriousness or potential urgency of any kind of Russian or Chinese threat, issues which unquestionably “rule the day” when it comes to current thinking and discussion, much of the emphasis is on deterrence, and rightly so.
How can forces and capability be massed, deployed or demonstrated to ensure that either Russia or China simply won’t want to consider the consequence of U.S. response to any kind of first strike.
However, what about what happens if there actually is a war? Who wins? Could a Chinese invasion of Taiwan be stopped? A Russian capture of the Balkans? While likely to happen largely behind closed doors, for obvious security reasons, it is a pretty safe bet that these scenarios are being wargamed and analyzed in great detail.
An interesting essay from the American Enterprise Institute entertains the question, suggesting that any kind of major engagement would not end quickly, given the perils and risks associated with a potential loss.
A Long Campaign
“The outcome of a great-power war may be determined by what happens after the first campaign — who can ramp up production of missiles and other munitions, who can quickly replace lost ships and aircraft, who has the stronger, more adaptive industrial base and can better withstand the economic damage a conflict will inflict,” AEI Scholar Hal Brands writes.
